THE RACE: The Group II J J Liston Stakes has been somewhat of a graveyard for favourite backers over the last decade. Only one popular elect has saluted in that period, Apache Cat at $2.10 in 2007. The mix of age winners is a relatively even spread with no real pattern evident. Like most early season weight-for-age races, there is traditionally a mix between horses first-up against those that have begun their preparation. However, once again, there is no real historical bias towards either group. Being a Group II weight-for-age event, the Liston naturally provides a high quality winner, but the focus is usually on the stars that are doing their best work on the line with a positive start to their spring campaigns. However, it hasn’t been a strong reference point for deeper in the carnival with no Liston winner going on to win the Melbourne Cup. Only Sydeston in 1990 has won the Liston before being successful in the Caulfield Cup and not since So Called in 1978 has the Liston winner been successful in the Cox Plate. In fact, Subzero in 1992 was the last Melbourne Cup winner to run in the Liston, Maldivian is the last Cox Plate winner to compete in the Liston when he ran third in the race en-route to his Cox Plate victory in 2008 and in Caulfield Cup term, Elvstroem finished fifth in the 2004 edition of the Liston before his Caulfield Cup win.
STAR MELBOURNE BET – SO YOU THINK (Caulfield Race 6 No. 10): The much anticipated return of arguably the best horse in the land is met with a great deal of confidence. His last racing campaign culminated in his memorable Cox Plate win and he was narrowly defeated in a stakrecord breaking Ming Dynasty first-up. He has always been a cracking type and has reportedly furnished into an even more impressive animal. For those worried about the 300 day break, Sydney stable foreman James Cummings pointed out during the week that he hasn’t actually had that amount of time off as he was tuned-up to the point of almost having a run last preparation, until the stable decided to abort his autumn. The booking of Steven Arnold is also a huge bonus. The camp is happy with him and if they are right, which they invariably are, he's the horse to beat.
STAR SYDNEY BET – WINTER KING (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6): Returned from a break from which he was gelded and looked a much improved horse. Was well backed and dominated a lessor affair, but with great authority. He wasn’t fully wound up and will derive natural benefit from that run. Has always had a stamp of quality which looks like it is about to be fulfilled. Barrier eight shouldn't be a concern; with his natural speed, Glyn Schofield should be able to punch him out from the gates and sit on the lead and kick him away half way down the straight and put the race out of reach. He's also unbeaten on slow and heavy tracks.
LAY OF THE DAY – KONTIKI PARK (Rosehill Race 7 No 3): Was absolutely off the map for his last start win in a fair midweek race. Got all the favours in the run and paddled to the line. Khemosabi, his main competitor on Saturday, won on the same day and was far more impressive. With the Waterhouse factor and with it starting very short in the market last start it should remain around the $4.00 and, at that price, is gross unders.
TRIAL AND GEAR CHANGE TIP - LIGHTHORSEMAN (Rosehill Race 3 No.8): He’s always shown more ability than most and he’s been gelded since his last run. That operation is our favourite gear change with a talented but bullish colt and it struck again three weeks ago when a two stone lighter Winter King produced the goods. Lighthorseman showed signs he is now a real racehorse when thumping the likes of Danleigh in a recent Warwick Farm trial and against this moderate line up he will be hard to beat. NOTE: Lighthorseman is a dual acceptor and this tip is only for race 3.
WET TRACK SPECIALIST - RHYTHM IN PARIS (Caulfield Race 2 No.9 or Race 7 No. 18): This talented mare has had one start beck from a spell for a fast-finishing second to Tonic on a dead track on July 17. She has had three weeks between runs but finds herself on a slow or heavy track on Saturday. The daughter of Bianconi has won three of four wet track runs and has a stack of talent. Back her straight out in Race 2 and each way if she gains a run in Race 7.
COMEBACK TRAIL – JUST LOOK (Caulfield Race 5 No. 3): Just Look has been off the scene for 50 weeks and has raced only once in the past 66 weeks for a midfield finish behind Raffaello at Caulfield. He is a horse of undoubted ability, a winner at Listed level and placed in Group II company. He trialled extremely well in preparation for this at Traralgon on August 2. Have something on him at good odds with the speed expected to be reasonably quick here.
$20 QUADDIE STRATEGY: We will focus on Caulfield on Saturday, with big fields providing a potential good dividend. We’ll keep it to three in the first leg (Mr Baritone, Just Look and Avenue), two in the Liston where we have narrowed it down to our good thing of the day, So You Think, and Shoot Out, and go wide in the last two. Keep an eye on the scratchings and add (18) Rhythm in Paris if it gets a run in the third leg. $20 will get you 13.33%.
1st Leg: 1, 3, 8
2nd Leg: 10, 11
3rd Leg: 4, 6, 7, 8, 11
4th Leg: 4, 5, 7, 12, 15
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