AFL ROUND 21- JD's Specials
The Cats are starting to purr! Round 21 kicks off on Friday night at Etihad stadium with Geelong taking on Carlton. The Cats are coming off an emphatic 101 point victory over the disappointing Western Bulldogs, while the Blues were also convincing victors over Richmond to the tune of 89 points. Carlton have won the last 2 meetings between the two teams, but the Cats were ultra impressive against the Dogs at the same venue last Saturday night. Back Geelong at the -31.5 @1.90
Which Riewoldt will prevail? St Kilda meets Richmond at Etihad Stadium on Saturday in a game the Saints should win comfortably. The real interest is in the Riewoldt cousins, Richmond's Jack Riewoldt is leading the Coleman medal by 1 goal, while St Kilda's Nick Riewoldt had a welcome return to form last week against North Melbourne with 7 goals. Richmond have not beaten St Kilda since round 4 2003 and expect the Saints to win well, as they fine tune for September. Back St Kilda 60+ @ 2.70
Collingwood to continue on winning way! Collingwood are looking to extend their undefeated streak to 11 matches when they take on the Adelaide Crows on Saturday night at the MCG. Collingwood are in white hot form and are deserved premiership favourites, while the Crows enjoyed a rare win on the road in Brisbane last week. This looks another lopsided contest with Collingwood heading towards a top placed finish, while the Crows will be looking to finish season off well. Back Collingwood 60+ @ 2.05.
A happy team at Hawthorn? Hawthorn takes on Fremantle at Aurora stadium in a game that may reveal how both sides are going to fare in September. The Hawks bounced back after some criticism from President Jeff Kennett with a gritty win last week against the Demons, while Fremantle dropped a game at home they were expected to win against Sydney. The Dockers have met the Hawks 4 times for 4 losses at Aurora Stadium, a trend that looks set to continue. Injuries have hindered the Dockers of late and the Hawks will be looking to build on the momentum gathered last week and will win at their home away from home. Back the Hawks 24.5+ @ 1.71
Will the Bulldogs bite back? The Sydney Swans take on the Western Bulldogs at the SCG on Saturday night, in what promises to be an exciting encounter. The Swans will be buoyed by 2 wins against fellow top 8 opponents Hawthorn and Fremantle, while the Bulldogs will be doing some soul searching after their 101 point annihilation at the hands of Geelong. The Western Bulldogs have won the last 5 against the Swans, but with this game to be spiritual leader Brett Kirks last at the SCG, expect the Swans to be primed for a huge effort. Back either team under 15.5 @ 2.75.
Power to charge on! Port Power take on Melbourne on Sunday at AAMI in what promises to be a close encounter. The Power have won the last 8 between the teams at AAMI and are coming off a hard fought victory in trying conditions over cellar dweller West Coast Eagles, while the Demons were spirited in defeat against the Hawks. Remarkably Melbourne has been installed as favorites. The Power is the value in this game, having won 3 out of their last 4. Back the Power head to head @ 2.05.
Goal fest at Etihad! Essendon take on the Brisbane Lions on Sunday in what promises to be an entertaining free flowing game. Last time these two teams met they played out an exciting draw at the MCG, and with this game at Etihad expect plenty of goals from both sides. With neither team playing in the finals expect the shackles to be off. Back the total game score OVER if the line is 195.5 or lower.
Can the Eagles soar? The final game of the round features West Coast Eagles and North Melbourne at Subiaco. The recent history between the two sides sits at 2 all and another tight game is expected. North Melbourne will be hoping to bounce back from a disappointing showing against the Saints last week, and keep their slim finals hopes alive. The Eagles showed some great character in their narrow defeat at the hands of the Power last week and will see this as a good chance to get on winners list again. Expect a tight game and back either team under 15.5 @2.8.
On The Punt - Warwick Stakes day
THE RACE: After a few years away from its traditional, and rightful home, the Warwick Stakes returns to Warwick Farm on Saturday. It is the traditional start for the Sydney campaigns for the weight-for-age gallopers and boasts on honour roll including the champion Kingston Town, a three time winner, and dual winners Super Impose, Filante and Lonhro and one of our all-time great mares, Sunline. It’s a race that favourites have an outstanding record in, seven of the last 11 popular picks have duly saluted. From a pointer to the spring, only five winners since its inception in 1923 have gone on to win the Epsom, the last being Filante in 1996, whilst the Warwick Stakes / Cox Plate double has been completed four times, the most recent being Sunline in 1999.
STAR BET – DECISION TIME (Race 7 No. 3): Golden Slipper runner-up that appears to have matured as a three-year-old. With his extra size, will no doubt take great benefit from his first-up third in the San Domenico. Having that run under his belt will also provide a fitness edge on many of his rivals who are resuming. His form is right up there with the top two-year-olds of last season and from a perfect draw, he will be bouncing into the winners circle on his home track on Saturtday.
LAY OF THE DAY – RAIHANA (Race 3 No. 2): The UAE Oaks winner is having her first start in Australia and is the current favourite at around the $3.50 mark. Every favourite holds the most ‘burden of proof’ and for ours there are too many questions that remained unanswered to justify backing her. How forward is she? Will she cope with Australian racing? Do you read anything into she was initially going to start in the Warwick Stakes? Now that her campaign has changed from aiming at the Cox Plate to the Caulfield Cup, will she be too dour to win first-up? She may well answer those questions but until she does, happy to look for other runners in this field of rock-hard fit in-form horses.
VALUE BET – SLOW THE FLOW (Race 5 No 11): Up in grade, but was super-impressive easily putting paid to a strong field at her previous start at Randwick. There looks to be hot pace in the race which will suit run on horses, and with the acceleration she showed in her previous win, will play into her hands. The top form from last season is still yet to be fully franked so an emerging horse such as Slow The Flow gets the opportunity to stand up and be counted. At around the $15 mark, she's worth a throw at the stumps.
FOLLOW THE TREND – DANLEIGH (Race 6 No 2): As mentioned in the history of the Warwick Stakes, favourites have an outstanding record in it and we are predicting that to continue on Saturday. We have tried and tried to find a reason for him to get beat but, except for a possible slow tempo, we can’t find one. If they do walk in front, he has the acceleration to combat that anyway as he showed last start when settling on the pace over 1200m. He is as good a sprinter as any horse in the land when he is at the top of his game, and like Decision Time, has had the benefit of a run back.
MR CONSISTENCY – PINWHEEL (Race 8 No. 5): 12 starts, six wins, six seconds, that’s his record. He won the Ramornie last start, after being beaten by Hay List at Eagle Farm at his previous run. It would also be almost criminal not to tip a Peter Snowden galloper on a feature Warwick Farm meeting. Like Joe Pride, we have a huge opinion of Pinwheel’s rival Neeson, but he calls as he sees it and he has said that he will probably need the run and preferred his other runner, Sacred Choice.
FRESH FLYER – TROMSO (Race 1 No. 2): Has had three campaigns and his only first-up defeat came when a tragedy beaten. Comes into this after running during the Brisbane winter campaign so he’ll be carrying residual fitness. Has the services of Nash Rawiller and carries a big class edge over his rivals.
MELBOURNE GOOD THING – IN FAITH (Race 5 No. 3): Created a huge impression with two promising wins at its first two starts, before starting second favourite in the VRC Sires and turning in a shocker, that must be forgiven. Stable and rider have a huge opinion of this galloper and if it can live up to expectations, and repeat what it showed at its first two starts, it will be winning first-up at Moonee Valley.
$20 QUADDIE STRATEGY: Going in with a fair deal of confidence and if the legs fall right, should pay ok. We’ll take four in the first leg, leaving out favourite Solar Charged, Danleigh and Dealer Principal in the Warwick Stakes, four in the Up And Coming and take the risk and leave out Neeson in the last. $20 will get you 20.83 percent.
1st Leg: 2, 7, 8, 11
2nd Leg: 2, 8
3rd Leg: 2, 3, 4, 7
4th Leg: 5, 7, 8
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