AFL Round 7 Preview

Power V Hawks

Can the insipid Power be turned back on this Friday night? The simple answer is NO NO NO and NO. They are a disgrace to the competition and Matty Primus is ashamed to be coach. They have neither the heart nor any players willing to play for the jumper. The AFL is gravely concerned about the goings on at Alberton and rightly so. The Power boys lost any of the friends they had left with their second embarrassing ‘effort’ in as many weeks.  The Hawks on the other hand are rested up after their insipid second half showing against the Cats and will be eager to prove to the doubters they are a genuine top four threat. Unfortunately, probably no Cyril who is out with a hammy and fortunately no Cam Bruce. It would seem Melbourne’s decision not to sign him for two years was a decision they did get right. The Hawks won’t want to take this easy as their form at Footy Park is awful. Must win game for both clubs and the Hawks will triumph.

Suggested Bet: Butsy's All Form Rule #13 - Don't bet on Friday Night Football because what you think is going to happen normally doesn't.

Doggies V Swans

Outstanding effort from the Dogs last week showing signs that they are up there with the elite sides in the comp. Without Hudson, Higgins and Hall they pushed the Pies all the way. The Swans however showed us that despite their tough, hard bodies they need a forward to kick bags of goals if they are to be serious contenders. A crucial game for both sides as they head to the nation's capital this weekend, because with just two wins from five games each, both desperately need the four points. No Kieran Jack will hurt the Bloods and the Dogs have more class. Chocolates for the Dogs. 

Suggested Bet: WESTERN BULLDOGS Under 24.5 - Click here to BET

Cats V Kangas

The obvious sub plot here is the Scott brothers facing off for the first time in the regular season, the first time in AFL/VFL history that identical twin brothers have done so. The Cats will be purring after their well earned week off.  Although they will be concentrating on the Roos, it will be hard not to think of the dream clash with the Pies after that. The Roos got some confidence and pride against a side lacking in most departments last week. The Cats have won their last 24 matches at Skilled Stadium. If they win this week, they will have won the most consecutive matches at one venue in the history of the game. They are simply too good for the Roos and should give them a touch up.

Suggested Bet: GEELONG 40 To 59 - Click here to BET

Tigers V Dockers

How good is Dustin Martin? The yellow and black will need him firing on all cylinders this weekend when the Dockers come to town. The Tigers scored a famous victory last time the two teams met but I think the in form Freo may just have their measure this time. They have a plethora of hard, gut running talent and in Kepler Bradley, Jay Van Berlo and Nathan Fyfe, they also have the talent up forward to finish it off. Let’s not forget big Jack down the other end. He has shown why he is an elite player and will provide a handful for the inexperienced Freo defence. Tigers will not be ashamed but will go down nonetheless.

Suggested Bet:  FREMANTLE Under 24.5 - Click here to BET

Suns V Lions

There will be plenty on the line this weekend when the AFL witnesses its first ever Queensland derby. Four competition points, state pride and The Karl Stefanovic Cup for the most unworthy winner of the year will all be up for grabs. The Lions were OK against the Tigers but look further away from a win than ever, while the less said about the Suns on Sunday the better. A draw has never looked like such a likely option. The Lions cannot afford to lose this game. Voss cannot afford to lose this game. Make no mistake, Michael Voss is under enormous pressure this week. The wolves will be baying for his blood. His temporary brain fade after the Lions' loss to Richmond on Saturday night when he gave a blanket spray to his entire side, proves to me that he is the number one dud coach in the comp. Meanwhile the Bollinger the AFL Admins broke out last Saturday turned to good old West Coast Cooler after the Bombers first quarter demolition job on the Suns. Brisbane just.....

Suggested Bet:  Either Team Under 15.5 - Click here to BET

Bombers V Eagles

This looks to be one of the matches of the round. The Bombers are coming off a record breaking game whilst the Eagles had a resounding, confidence boosting win against the Dees. The much maligned Eagles have a forward line of Shuey, LeCras, Kennedy, Lynch and Darling which is right up there in terms of talent. They will provide headaches for the young Bomber defence whose mettle will be well and truly tested here. It was great to see Patty Ryder finally get his hands dirty in a game and his work with Bellchambers and Hille will go a long way in helping this year is a memorable one for the Bombers. James Hird said Dustin Fletcher will definitely play so the veteran defender will return after missing last week’s Gold Coast massacre. Picking the Bombers only because of home field advantage. 

Suggested Bet:  WEST COAST +31.5 - Click here to BET

Dees V Crows

The fans are angry, seasoned AFL commentators, both former coaches and former players are raising eyebrows, and the Demons are being seriously questioned. What can Dean Bailey do to save his job? Win perhaps? The Demons' season is on a knife edge. Their game plan seems nonexistent, the player’s ability to get to the contest and their overall body language is very poor and they haven’t seen the best of number one pick Jack Watts. Adelaide stormed back into top four contention with a brilliant win over the Saints Saturday night. With Tippet on song up forward they are a completely different side. Their senior players seem to be blending with the youth and Neil Craig wasn’t exploding so this can only be good. Crows will be too good.

Suggested Bet:  ADELAIDE - Click here to BET

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Saints V Blues

We know the talents of Chris Judd but every now and again he turns in a performance that makes you consider his place in the list of all-time greats. His 33 disposals last week included 25 contested possessions and 15 clearances and was simply outstanding. No longer a rabble, the Blues have a bit of a swagger back. St Kilda on the other hand is g-a-w-n gorn. Ross Lyon has lost it, and players have lost it. Another quirk in the AFL draw with this being on a Monday night but this wont any difference to the result. Blues in a canter.

Suggested Bet:  CARLTON Under 24.5 - Click here to BET

Combined MultiBet Value: $3412.15 

Butsy's Best - Golden Slipper Day

Rosehill
The BMW – Race 5
LINTON - Rosehill R5 No 7 - Great horse.
HAWK ISLAND - Rosehill R5 No 2 - Outstanding. Few wins left yet.

GEORGE RYDER STAKES – Race 6
TRIPLE ELEGANCE - Rosehill R6 No 10 – Love his chances, in form.

GOLDEN SLIPPER – Race 7
MASTHEAD - Rosehill R7 No 5 - Big future
SALADE - Rosehill R7 No 6 – Bart trained.

QUEENS CUP - Race 8
KING LIONHEART - Rosehill R8 No 3 – Fit for a queen. Gai trained and goes well.

SEBRING STAKES – Race 9
ATOMIC FORCE - Rosehill R9 No 3 - Outstanding.

Provincials
Ballarat
OUR INHERITANCE - Ballarat R4 No 5 – Conditions should suit.
MEGAPIXEL - Ballarat R6 No 1 – At this grade should be winning
EIGHT EDGES - Ballarat R9 No 3 – Has been a bit down but loves it first up

Kembla Grange
TROPICANA GIRL - Kembla R5 No 7 - Redoutes filly, lightly raced. EW chance

Butsy's AFL Round 2 Preview

St Kilda V Richmond
Another AFL kangaroo court decision has seen the Tigers lose Alex Rance for up to 3 weeks for an innocuous bump on Jarred Waite. Richmond can ill afford to lose a regular defender but they showed in Conca, Rance and Batchelor that they have an exciting young list. Ross Lyon’s St Kilda went back to the “North of the border football” which he pioneered whilst assistant coach at Sydney. It was probably the worst Friday night opener since Friday night football began. If the Saints play like that they won’t even be making the eight let alone the top four. As a side issue the Riewoldt brothers will go head to head and whoever kicks the most goals could well decide who wins. Saints.....just although Im putting Richmond in the multi.

North Melbourne V Collingwood
North showed tremendous resolve in the West where they were robbed of victory by another umpiring blunder in the final minutes. A total of eight regular senior players were missing and to get within a kick was outstanding.  Even more outstanding were the youngsters Richardson, Pederson and Atley who stepped up to the plate when it really counted. Unfortunately they will be playing the Premiers Collingwood, who after toying with Port Adelaide like a cat torments a mouse, banged on 10 goals to one in the final quarter to smash the inexperienced Power. The fab four of Swan, Didak, Thomas and Pendlebury conducted a Magpie orchestra which is fine tuning itself for another crack at the flag. Magpies by 60.

Port Adelaide V West Coast
The failing Power with its group of inexperienced youngsters took on Collingwood and won ...albeit for a period of 30 mins and it showed that they have the potential to be a force in the years to come. West Coast’s win in its opener against North in the energy sapping heat was a tremendous victory, made even more difficult after the horrendous injury to their star forward Mark Le Cras. He will be a massive loss but the boy Gaff showed he has some ticker and he may well step up to the plate. Port however will be too tough an assignment. Power by 4 goals.

Gold Coast V Carlton
The game we’ve all been waiting for (not). Finally the Suns take the field with its ensemble of overpaid, poached superstars. There will be no less than 11 debutants in the game which is great for dream teamers but bad for the general viewing public. Carlton’s midfield will slaughter the hapless Suns with only Ablett and Swallow able to mount any resistance. After the scare the Tigers gave them last week, Brett Ratten would’ve showed the boys no mercy on the track this week and I expect them to give the Gold Coast a hiding. Blues by 50 points.

Fremantle V Geelong
The Cats will be without all Australian full-back Matty Scarlett after his reckless act on Nick Riewoldt cost him a week in the sin bin. This could be the impetus for Fremantle’s favourite son Matthew Pavlich to finally shine on the big stage on a night when he will play his 238th game, equalling the club record held by Shane Parker, established between 1995-2007. The Dockers deserved their win last week albeit a lucky one and they showed signs that the top four is not out of their reach. Geelong will have to improve on last week. The Royal Wedding will be more exciting than the rubbish they served up. Dockers by 42 points in a blowout.

Western Bulldogs V Brisbane
If the Doggies beat the undermanned Lions as expected and then follow that up with another victory over the Suns they will be 2-1 and everybody will be saying what was all the fuss about after their disgracefully, inept performance in round one. Rodney Eade said his midfield were ‘obliterated’ and that they had nothing up forward. In my opinion Eade has done his dash at the Bulldogs and he should find a new club next year or just float around the media. The loss of Jonathan Brown for the year (don’t listen to the club, he is gonesky) will not do the already pathetic Lions any favours. To their credit, the umpire cost Brisbane the game Sat night but that’s what happens when you prepare and play poorly. Dogs by 36.

Sydney V Essendon
First time in nine years that Essendon has been on top of the ladder. They were easily the most impressive side of round one and the burning question is whether or not they can follow it up in round two.  Sydney struggled on the big paddock that is the ‘G’ and Melbourne’s pace exposed the frailty of the Swans defence.  St James looks to be working miracles at Bomberland so I’m getting on board until it comes to a abrupt halt. Bombers by 4 goals.

Hawthorn V Melbourne
Hawks were impressive for one half at least over in Adelaide against a very, very good Crows unit. If not for Buddy and Roughie missing easy shots for goal (sound familiar Hawk fans?) the result could have been a lot different. Some great signs for the Hawks and Dees with some dazzling youngsters coming through but in the end the Hawks experience and poise will be enough to see them get up comfortably. Hawks by 20 points.

Australian Cricket Test XI

Starting Test XI : Marsh, Paine, Kwalaja, Clarke(c), Watson (vc), Ponting, Christian, Johnson, Krezja, Faulkner, Cummings. 

Cricket Australia – The Blame Game

Until such time as CA is prepared to tackle its issues from the CEO down, we will continue to see spineless performances such as the recent Ashes series and early World Cup exit. The CA executive, including Sutherland needs a massive shake-up.  Cricket Australia should be worried about Tim Neilson and his band of inept, technically deficient coaches. They have to go to. T20 cricket has seen the decline of technique and the ability to leave the ball outside off stump. While the diminishing of techniques was anticipated I doubt many of us expected the decline to manifest itself so quickly. Anyone who saw Steve Smith bottom edge his pull shot onto his stumps in the Melbourne test will appreciate the decline. No foot work whatsoever and he seemed surprised that he failed to control his bat and the shot. The Australian selectors also have to cop their fair share of the blame as well. They made a series of atrocious decisions including:

• Leaving Nathan Hauritz out with no plan to replace him. They had plenty of opportunity to ditch both Hauritz and North before the Ashes yet they left it until the series had already begun.  North should have been axed 18 months ago.
• Bollinger playing injured and obviously underdone in the test series and then getting selected for the World Cup
• No spinner in Melbourne
• Steve Smith being selected as a specialist no 6 batsman.
• Phillip Hughes being selected over Shaun Marsh with an average of 16 v 57.
• Kept selecting Hilfenhaus when he was obviously still struggling with a knee injury.
• The selection of David Hussey with his obvious technical flaw of backing away and trying to flay everything over cover.
• Not insisting that Ponting bat at 6 when his pride was saying otherwise.
• The inability to recognise young talent coming through and sticking with it. The selection of 35 year old Michael Hussey for the World Cup as a replacement rather than giving Paine and Ferguson a go given that were already in the squad was a absolute disgrace.
• Dan Christian is another example. Australian ODI team is screaming out for a middle order batsman who can bowl medium pace yet we continually pick 33 year old David Hussey.
• The selection of Michael Beer in the test series. Terrible spinner. How many cans did Boonie and Warnie have when they recommended him?
• The selection of 4 quicks Johnson, Tait, Lee and Bollinger for the World Cup. If those 4 play in the same 11 the opposition will get 350+ on the flat wickets of the Sub Continent. In hindsight even though I have been saying it for 6 months, Doherty should have been selected as a spin tandem with Krezja.

It was welcoming to hear CA is undergoing a radical review of its structure and performance. No one’s job should be safe and hopefully this will bring about the death knell for Hilditch, Neilson and Langer. A step in the right direction. The new coaching staff needs to demand the highest standards.  A back-room packed with experts in public relations and media should be thrown out the door never to return.  Cricket does not exist to make money. Commerce is a means to an end; that is all. The emphasis should be a return to basics, an involvement in the game at the grassroots.  You need to do the basics right and play to your strengths in order to get the best results you can.

If we look back 25 years when Australia had to last rebuild – Allan Border A.K.A - Captain grumpy: a Coach that could terrify players (Bob Simpson) and bringing in and trying younger players was a formula that worked.  It really took those 4-5 years to find and develop a core of players that would start to bring Australia back as a force in world cricket. This sort of thing will not be immediate and it is right to look at the administration as well as the players.  People bagging Michael Clark as not being right for captaincy needs to look at what he was doing in the Sydney Test.....  Ok he didn't score any runs, but he will come back to form and has a lot of runs in the bank.  His handling of Mitch Johnston was excellent - bowl 2 over’s of rubbish, get dragged and come back later. He did that with a number of bowlers and at one stage had Beer and Watson bowling because they were the ones who could put it in the right spot. His captaincy was a lot more patient than Ponting and I honestly think he is the man for the job. I also think it is time to bring back Captain Grumpy and make him coach. It is also time to ask Mark Taylor, Steve Waugh and Dennis Lillee to take over and oversee the selection of Australian cricket over the next ten years.

The Australian Cricket Board has to shoulder much of the blame.  Every company has to be accountable from the top down. Chairman Jack Clarke and Deputy Chairman Wally Edwards should be hung, drawn and quartered for their negligence of the situation. In fact there are no less than 14 people on the Cricket Australia board and that doesn’t include CEO James Sutherland who should be held accountable. These men select the selectors who pick the team. More importantly they run the various academy’s around the country and the domestic competitions. They are responsible for the production of the next generation of players coming through. With 10 spinners since Shane Warne’s retirement, it would seem that any process or planning for his replacement is nonexistent.   

There are also some questionable characters on the board that seem very “Non” cricket. Trevor O'Hoy has never played cricket in his life and whilst I understand you need people with business acumen on a company board I question the validity of having such a person on the Cricket Australia board.  David Williams falls in the same category. I would also question the average age of the board. A rough guess would be 55-60. Hardly ideal when we are moving into the 21^st century. The 2 youngest people on the board are Matthew Hayden and Mark Taylor. James Sutherland said that a “report” would be handed to the board and the board will then decide if a review is necessary. Hang on, the board is going to decide whether or not it needs to be reviewed or not. That seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul to me. The whole board needs to be stood down and a new board elected in. A board with forsight and vision rather than one that is still bathing in 20 years of glory. A board that is fully accountable and transparent. At the moment the boards complete lack and process and planning and it’s reluctance for change is damming.

Butsy's Best for the Weekend - Rosehill Guineas Day

Rosehill Guineas Day

Caulfield Tips

ROULETTES - Caulfield R 2 No 6 - Impressive

CAT'S PYJAMAS - Caulfield R 4 No 11 - Good acceleration. Well bred.

MARHETA - Caulfield R 4 No 2 - Good style. Going places

BELGIETTO - Caulfield R 5 No 7 - Trainer said best he's trained

HARKAWAY - Caulfield R 6 No 12 –Tough ask but Yendall on top and has shown signs will be a good horse.

ELUSIVE KING - Caulfield R 8 No 1 – The one to beat

Newcastle Tips

INTERPRET - Newcastle R 3 No 2 – In a stronger class but fitter from recent racing and likes the distance.

AGAINST THE DAY - Newcastle R 3 No 3 - Promising type

SPIN BALL - Newcastle R 6 No 14  - City horse who hasn’t impressed of late but could be going provincial looking for an easy kill. Good odds.

COLUMBIAN STRIKE - Newcastle R 8 No 6 - Staying potential.

Rosehill Tips

GOLDEN ARCHER - Rosehill R 2 No 1 – Favourite and will be hard to beat.

BOYS ON TOUR - Rosehill R 2 No 6  - Value beet of the day. Each Way all the way.

VINTEDGE - Rosehill R 6 No 4 - Eye Catching run last start.

VIVID VIXEN - Rosehill R 6 No 1 - Impressive horse.

DOMESKY - Rosehill R 7 No 7 - Great last start winner and will win more races for sure.

ANACHEEVA - Rosehill R 7 No 1 - Moody trained. Definitely one for the exotics.

SHAMROCKER - Rosehill R 7 No 14 - Young horse going places.

ONCE WERE WILD Rosehill R 8 No 2 - Impressive Oaks horse however hasn’t been in great form of late. Down in class here and loves the distance.

LORNE DANCER - Rosehill R 8 No 1 - Likes this track (2 wins here) and is a winner at the distance.

IRONSTEIN - Rosehill R 8 No 10 - Smart horse. Stepping up in distance this prep but proven in this distance range

JEREZANA - Rosehill R 9 No 6 - By Lonro. Outstanding.

Quaddie: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, 13 / 1, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14 / 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 14 /  2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 15, 16  - $200 (10%)

Toowoomba Tips

DUKE WILLIAM - Toowoomba R 2 No.4 – Worth a punt, Saluted at great odds a few weeks ago. I’ve been following it for a while.

Butsy's Best for the Weekend - Coolmore Classic Day

With an average of 5.5 runners in the first 4 races at Rosehill and an average of seven in the first 4 at Caulfield, it does not add up to an especially appealing racecard this weekend. However there is still plenty to keep us fascinated if not necessarily betting. Also, at Caulfield, once the first four races are complete, the quaddie legs open right up and I'll be planning to go very wide for a percentage before coming home in the last with one or two selections. 

The Coolmore Classic at Rosehill heralds the start of the Sydney carnival and looks to be a cracker race with anything up to six real chances to take out the Group One event. The race was first run in 1973 and the three-year-old fillies have a great record, winning it 18 times with the most recent being Typhoon Tracy in 2009. With usually a close to capacity field of fillies and mares the race is definitely not one for favourites. My pick as you will see is a roughie and if we can snare that leg of the quaddie it might just end up being a profitable day.

Caulfield

First and foremost I will be staying away from the smaller fields. The pace is unpredictable and interference seems to be strangely exacerbated. However I will be following a Perth 4yr old mare in Race 2 No 4 Happy Angel. She caught my eye when she ran 3rd in Hobart back in Feb beaten by the outstanding filly, Lady Lynette. She has placed seven times from 11 starts at Caulfield which bodes well although she prefers the sting out of the ground. Stephen King is on top and that is always a plus. Another one I'll be watching is in Race 4 No 2 Filed Hunter. Back in September 2009 as a seven year old, he came second to Alcopop in the listed JRA Cup before injuring his fetlock. That was enough for him to spend 75 weeks without a race. On his day he is an outstanding galloper and it wouldn't surprise me to see the old boy get one more win at good odds before he calls it a day.

Quaddie Legs

LIBERTAS – Caulfield Race 5 No 9 (1600m)
Excellent last time out at Sandown. Terrific each-way chance at good odds. 

WIND SHEAR - Caulfield Race 6 No 5 (1800m)

Forgive the last run in the Blamey and the sectionals suggest that his run wasn't all that bad. Ready to win

TURNITUP - Caulfield Race 7 No 6 (1400m)

First run for Moody was outstanding and down in the weights here whilst the trip suits.

FLYING TESSIE - Caulfield Race 8 No 3 (1400m)

Beaten by 2 lengths last start to Aloha and that looks the key form. Definately the one to beat.

Suggested Quaddie

2,6,8,9 / 5,6,9,12 / 4,5,6,8 / 3,5,7  - $50 for 26.04%

Rosehill

Quaddie Legs

FAST CLIP (Race 6 No2) Keeps getting better. Up to this level.

WARPATH (Race 7 No 16): Reckon she’ll run a huge race.

OLDER THAN TIME (Race 8 No 9): Waterhouse & Boss. Need I say anymore?

STAR OF OCTAGONAL (Race 9 No 9): Group Three winner and out of my favourite horse of all time.

Suggested Quaddie

1,2,5 / 3,4,6,7,10,16 / 1,8,9 / 1,4,7,8,9,11 - $50 for 15.43%