AFL Round 22
Freo will give Blues Heave Ho! Round 22 kicks off with the Fremantle Dockers taking on Carlton at Subiaco on Friday night. There is plenty at stake in this game with Fremantle needing to win to be guaranteed a coveted home final. Both teams are coming off losses with the Blues going down to the cats by 42 points while the Dockers took a much publicised second string outfit to Launceston last week and were defeated by 116 points by the Hawks. While it is hard to tip a side that is coming off a 100+ point loss defeat, the Dockers and Mark Harvey will have egg on their face if they are not victorious after resting so many big guns. For this reason they look a great bet this week. Back Fremantle 16 or more @ 2.39.
Cats to fine tune! Premiership favourites Geelong take on wooden spooners West Coast Eagles, a game in which the cats will be hoping to get through unscathed for the finals.while the West Coast Eagles will be looking forward to mad Monday. Geelong has won the last 5 against the Eagles and will win convincingly. With Podsiadly out, back Steve Johnson for top goalscorer.
Hot Pies! Collingwood and Hawthorn meet on Saturday in what promises to be an exciting contest. Collingwood were not overly impressive last week with a narrow win over Adelaide, while the Hawks had a glorified practice match win over an injury depleted Fremantle Dockers in Launceston. When these two teams met in Round 4 it was the Magpies who were victors by 64points, and while a blowout is not expected, the Magpies should continue on their winning way. Back Collingwood 15.5+ @ 2.00
Thanks for the memories! One of the games true superstars in dual Norm Smith Medalist will be farewelled when Adelaide takes on St Kilda at AAMI on Saturday afternoon. The Saints have been building on their form in recent weeks in the lead up to the finals, while the Crows nearly produced the upset of season against Collingwood last week. Expect the Crows to be pumped up for McLeod's send off and give the saints a scare. Back Adelaide +16.5 @ 1.90
Last Knights for Bombers? The Western Bulldogs take on Essendon at Etihad on Saturday night in what could be Matthew Knights last game as coach. The Western Bulldogs have been disappointing of late with defeats at the hands of Geelong and Sydney while the Bombers were insipid against Brisbane last week. Expect the shackles to be off with both sides and a shootout to occur. Back the total game score OVER the line.
Swans to lock in home final! Sydney Swans travel to Brisbane on Saturday night with a win required to guarantee a home final. Brisbane had a return to form last week with a win over the hapless Bombers, while the Swans have won their last 3. The end of the season can’t come quick enough for the Lions while the Swans are looking capable of going deep into September action. Back Sydney -12.5 @ 1.90
It’s Jacks Coleman! Port Adelaide take on Richmond at Etihad on Sunday with both teams looking to finish season on a high. The real interest is in whether Matthew Primus can finish off his caretaker role with another win, which in turn will further enhance his claim to the job next year. While Richmond's Jack Riewoldt appears to have one hand on the Coleman Medal, he will be looking to finish season well. Back the Tigers 16 or more @ 2.20.
Dees to go out on a high! The Home and Away season finishes up on Sunday when Melbourne and North Melbourne clash at the MCG. Both teams can claim many positives out of the year despite not reaching the finals. North Melbourne has won the last 7 against Melbourne, but may have played there big game last week for Brent Harvey's 300th in Perth. Back Melbourne @ 2.05 head to head.
On The Punt with Butsy - Golden Rose & Memsie Stakes day
THE RACE: In only seven years, and with $1 million in prizemoney, the Golden Rose has already established itself as one of the jewels in the crown in Australian racing. It replaced the Peter Pan Stakes, with an honour roll that included Kingston Town, as a spring feature at Rosehill. Deservedly granted Group I status last year, the race perfectly complements the Golden Slipper and has already provided some rich history. The only horse to complete the double has been the outstanding multiple Group I winner Forensics. Hugh Bowman, aboard Masquerader, will be looking to make a record of one in every two on Saturday as he has won three of the seven runnings. For favourites, the first two years started off with In Top Swing and Doonan winning at around the 20-1 mark but since no runner over double figures have won, the last two years being taken out by popular picks Duport and Denman.
STAR BET – MASQUERADER (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4): Made an outstanding return carrying 58kg in the Run To The Rose when only being beaten half a length and probably cost itself victory by hanging out. Will derive plenty of improvement from that run and gets the benefit of coming back to set wights from a handicap and meets the winner of that race Squamosa 5kg better off. The step-up to 1400m looks ideal and he has always had a stamp of class about him, highlighted with his win over subsequent Slipper place-getter Decision Time in the Todman Stakes. Will be suited by the expected good tempo and get ready to get out of your seat and start cheering when Hugh Bowman unleashes him at the top of the straight and watch as he runs over the top of his rivals.
LAY OF THE DAY – MORE JOYOUS (Rosehill Race 7 No. 1): At her best, she is as brilliant as any horse in training. She has thrashed similar fields in the past. Her work has been outstanding, as was her barrier trial. She has put on a substantial amount of positive weight and strengthened right up. Then why lay her? She is currently $2.50 and we expect her to be shorter on the day. She was beaten in this race last year as favourite. She has barrier 12 and 59kg. There is talk that the camp is looking towards the Cox Plate so it is fair to assume she might not be as wound-up or brilliant as she has been early in her campaign. Simple case of rather having the rest of the field for us than against us and that tomorrow might not be her day.
FIRST UP SPECIALIST – PATRONYME (Rosehill Race 4 No 6): She’s four from four first-up and gives every indication she is primed and ready to make it five from five. She has barrier trialled in outstanding fashion and loves the track with two wins and two placings from four starts. She proved her class last preparation with a strong win over Beaded and Melito in the Birthday Card Stakes. The distance is also her best range, winning three of her four starts. Expect Corey Brown to utilise her natural speed asset and leave them all behind half-way down the straight.
SP PROFILE – JUVENILES (Rosehill Race 3 No. 5): Was heavily backed into favouritism at his last start when fourth, and disappointing, behind Our Cannavaro at Randwick on a slow track. He is currently rated around the $9 mark for this race, with Our Cannavaro a $5 favourite. The market assessed that Juveniles was the best chance in that race, but he gets many more things in his favour on Saturday. The huge factor is a dry track. Like most Octagonal’s he is hopeless in wet going and definitely saves his best for the dry. Like Our Cannavaro, he is fifth run back from a spell, but looks like he had more improvement in him and should be right at the top of his game. Only just a race and if he brings his best game, like the market predicted last start, he is an outstanding price.
GEAR CHANGE – LIGHTHORSEMAN (Rosehill Race 2 No. 8): The ultimate change in gear for this enigmatic bloke, he has been gelded. If it works to switch him on and helps him to find some consistency then look out. He has always shown a huge amount of promise, but is yet to deliver. If his trail is any indication the procedure may have had the desired effect as he thrashed Danleigh and Sacred Choice recently. Where he has been relatively consistent has been first-up. Last preparation he won extremely impressively resuming and once again got everybody in, only to let his supporters down again. If he does bring his best, he looks like he will get every opportunity to win, as he should get the best run of the race, settling perfect from barrier 2 just in behind a hot-speed. His lead-up is right, the conditions of the race are right, if his head is right he will be winning.
BACK ON THE DRY – SNOW ALERT (Rosehill Race 5 No. 4): He has developed into quite a consistent galloper, but still clearly saves his best for a dry track. This further enhances his run when second-up from a short break when just nutted by With Ice and Scouting Wide kicking back for second. Looks to be more improvement in him than Scouting Wide, especially back on the dry. On the same theme, one for the thrillseekers earlier in the day is Indirect in Lighthorseman’s race. Rarely wins, and when she does it’s usually at odds with two factors; dry and a hot tempo. She gets both of these and is $31. Worth including somewhere.
PRICE TIP – SO YOU THINK (Caulfield Race 6 No. 8) They are betting $7.50, if he wins or runs a cracker you won’t see a price like that again this preparation. He’s the Cox Plate winner and his trainer, master horseman Bart Cummings, has come out in the press on Friday ‘bullish’ about the horse’s chances saying, “Whatever beats him will win and I don’t think they can” was the quote attributed to him in the Sydney Morning Herald. That’s good enough for us.
DUE FOR A CHANGEOF LUCK - SISTINE ANGEL (Caulfield Race 4 No.10): This filly is extremely talented but the Andrew Noblet camp endured a luckless run with her during the filly’s first campaign in the autumn. Sistine Angel finished hard behind Bullbars on debut before being a moral beaten at Listed level at Caulfield. With natural progression, Sistine Angel could be one to follow through the spring. Start off with something each way on Saturday.
WEIGHT AND CLASS DROP - APPREHEND (Caulfield Race 7 – No. 5) The Tony Vasil camp set Apprehend two huge tasks against Shoot Out in the Bletchingly and Liston Stakes at weight-for-age but the son of Hold That Tiger acquitted himself really well. He flashed home late over the unsuitable 1100-metre trip first-up before being flattened in the Liston Stakes but still finished his race off well. He drops from Group II level to Listed grade and drops 4.5kg. He’s well in here and is well worth an each way ticket at double figure odds.
$20 QUADDIE STRATEGY: Will need to get a decent price up in one of legs as going a bit “high wide and handsome” but think there is some chance of striking a rougher result. Kept the first leg to two, Scouting Wide and Snow Alert, then have four in the Golden Rose. Despite having Masquerader our best of the day, we have included another three; Squamosa, who has an outstanding SP profile for the race, and two around the 30-1 mark that are well over the odds, Ilovethiscity and Sasa. Have included our lay More Joyous, as there will be enough egg on the face without the added bonus of missing out on the quaddie if she does win, and then wide in the last, leaving out the favourite Kimberley Kid. $20 will get you 10.4 percent.
1st leg: 3, 4
2nd leg: 1, 4, 9, 14
3rd leg: 1, 2, 3, 11
4th leg: 2, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12
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