Chelmsford and Makybe Diva days
THE RACE: The Chelmsford, and the day itself, has long been thought of as having some kind of curse over it as a graveyard for short priced favourites. It is a meeting that traditionally is run by Tattersall’s Club, the home of the bookmaker. Despite the thought throughout history that it’s their day so therefore favourites strangely get beat, logic provides some answers. Most of the horses that start short-priced favourites have come off super-impressive wins at Warwick Farm at their first runs from spells. They are normally always on longer campaigns with goals entrenched further in the spring. Many have started long-odds on and been found wanting. Greats such as Super Impose, who was beaten three times as an-odds on favourite, Filante and Tie The Knot have all fallen victim. Many a time punters have left Randwick without their shirt and the backside out of their pants on Chelmsford Day. Beware of the curse!
STAR BET – PARABLES ( Randwick Race 4 No.1): We normally will steer away from tipping $2.50 chances as our best bet but she seems exceptional comparative value. We’ve assesses her as an odds on chance, so naturally believe she is massive overs at this quote. She finished over the top of her main rivals, More Strawberries, Elimbari and Ambers Waltz in the Silver Shadow, overcoming difficulties. She is just as suited to the extra distance as those she ran over. From the parade ring, she was open to more improvement than any other runner backing up. Her normally understated and highly astute trainer, Peter Snowden, can’t hide how impressed he is with her. She is top class and is a dead set moral. That’s why we are happy tipping her our best at $2.60.
PEARLS OF WISDOM – SEA LORD (Randwick Race 7 No. 10): Sea Lord ran in the much stronger Up And Coming Stakes and settled fifth, three wide, finishing 1 1/2 lengths second to Blackball. He will appreciate the probability of travelling more comfortably, take full advantage and win. His trainer, David Payne, another in the astute class, has him as a Caulfield Guineas contender, and if he is close to the mark, Sea Lord will be winning the Ming Dynasty. He has proven himself on wet ground with his debut second to Quidnunc on the heavy if the track was to deteriorate. Ticks most boxes.
THE BACK UP – LEGSMAN (Randwick Race 1 No. 1): Not only will the back-up suit, so will Nash Rawiller taking the ride. If ever two set of circumstances perfectly suit a horse, these are here. Horses on a seven day back-up have a great comparative winning percentage, and Legsman looks like he will thrive with it. Nathan Berry has done little wrong aboard Legsman, but Nash has the uncanny knack of turning decent form into winning form aboard these type of horses. He is a dour type who just keeps going and looks like he will be perfectly suited at the 2400m. He has only been unplaced once in six attempts on slow tracks. A winner to start the day with.
STICK WITH HER – RHTHYM IN PARIS (Flemington Race 5 No.8): We found this promising mare when she won the Group III Cockram Stakes at Caulfield at $11 and we have no reason to jump off her in the Let’s Elope Stakes. Rhythm In Paris is even better suited at 1400 metres and by a heavy track which she is likely to get on Saturday. She’s drawn well and should get a cosy run from the inside, if Ben Melham can get her into clear running, Rhythm In Paris’ outstanding turn of foot should do the rest again.
WET TRACK SUITS – SOUL (Flemington Race 6 No. 8): With the likelihood of a heavy track, Soul comes right into the Danehill Stakes. With great respect to Star Witness, who is absolutely flying on the track, doubt whether he will appreciate the expected conditions. He was super-impressive defeating Breitling down the straight over 1000m at his first start on the heavy and then had the tables turned back to a dead track. His latest run he was nosed out by Toorak Toff who has gone on to prove the form in winning the Golden Rose last week. Bet now, as the more it rains the shorter he will become.
MAKYBE QUINELLA – DANLEIGH AND VIGOR (Flemington Race 7 Nos 4 and 9): Danleigh is the proven weight for age performer and when at his best, which he looks like being at on Saturday, is right up there with the best horses in the land over sprints and middle distances. Vigor is the defending champ of this race and was impressive with his first-up fourth in the Liston with a run that suggested he was in for a huge preparation. He has worked brilliantly this week at Flemington. Quinella them up.
BIGGER TRACK SUITS – JUST LOOK (Flemington Race 9 No.4) This bloke has had two runs back from a spell and has had no luck on either occasion. Just Look has been crowded twice with the extra crowding caused by the inside portion of the track being off at Caulfield at his last two runs. Just Look also featured heavily in the stewards’ report last time out, the bigger track and wider straight should help the son of Fraar find a clear passage. He’s had one run at Flemington for a placing at Group II level in the Blamey Stakes. Saturday’s the day for him.
BLACKBOOKERS - STREET SENSATION - Donald Race 6 No 10 -1600m is his ideal trip. Has won in the city previously so has the class.
LINTON - Flemington Race 4 No 5 - Great horse. Massacres his rivals.
WE'RE GONNA ROCK - Flemington Race 8 No 12 - Great 3yr old out of Fastnet Rock. Won drawing away
IMPERIAL COMMAND - Flemington Race 9 No 17 - Good type, 1600m will be ideal. Good galloper.
SO MEPIN ANYPIN - Hawkesbury Race 1 No 9 at 12 - Great future. Win coming up
TROMSO - Randwick Race 8 No 8 - By Lonro. Impressive. Smashed the opposition.
WHISPER FROM THE MATES -
Flemington R1 No.9 - 'Pinker Pinker' - not one of my sires, but blackbooked this after I saw its last start win - couldn't of been any more impressive.
Flemington R5 No.3 - 'Small minds' - been waiting for this. Its first-up run suggests its come back better and it was only 4 lengths behind Faint Perfume last campaign. Is nominated for Cox Plate.
Randwick R3 No.4 - 'Little surfer girl' - impressive return last start - can go on with it.
Randwick R5 No.7 - 'Count encosta' - could be anything this one - will be following it.
TRAINERS - Back anything trained by Bart Each Way. He is the master. Has quite a few at Hawksbury on Saturday and thats where you'll get the value.
$20 QUADDIE STARTEGY: Just missed what could have been a big one last week if Ilovethiscity had any luck. Confident we will jag it this week, what it pays could be the issue, but we do have some great value knockout hopes that if they beat one of the favourites, should see the quaddie pay well. In the Chelmsford narrowed it down to three as one of Theseo, Triple Honour or Purple will win. The Tramway, whilst a big field, also looks a little thin for winning chances. Keepin’ The Dream is the value hope of the day and is in the second leg with Centennial Park, Neeson and Stryker. As mentioned earlier, Sea Lord will be very hard to beat, but if he gets beat the winner should come from Praecido, From The Vault or Kingfisher, who is an excellent chance at about 40-1. Coming home with only three selections in the final leg, Star Of Octagonal, Tromso and Budabar, who, like his stablemate Keepin’ The Dream, is excellent value. For $20 you will get 13.89 percent.
1st Leg: 1, 2, 8
2nd Leg: 5, 10, 12, 14
3rd Leg: 4, 5, 10, 11
4th Leg: 3, 8, 12
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