AFL Round 20
Essendon V Collingwood
JD: Good old Collingwood forever! Another huge crowd is expected to see Collingwood take on Essendon on Friday night at the MCG. The Magpies are red hot at the moment as illustrated last week with their convincing win over the reigning premiers, while the Bombers are becoming harder to predict by the week. The last 4 meetings between the two teams has the ledger all square at 2-2, but it is hard to go past Collingwood at the moment. Back Collingwood at the -40.5 line @1.90
SD: Hot Pies in August! Won’t it be great to see Collingwood lose the flag again after peaking way to early? Can’t knock them at the moment though because they have been outstanding. I can’t really see the Bombers doing much in this game even if Friday night games pull rabbits out of hats. There was yet more evidence of unrest at Bomberland this week with 2 more coaches going and Mark Williams spotted at Windy Hill having an informal “chat”. As always I’m going for some value here by backing the Pies between 20-39 points @$4.50. However Butsy’s All Form Rules apply No 13. Don’t bet on Friday night football, because what you think is going to happen normally doesn’t!
Carlton V Richmond
JD: The Blues are back. Carlton and Richmond meet on Saturday at the MCG in what looms as a crucial game for the Blues. After a week of heavy criticism the Blues bounced back against the Bombers with an emphatic victory last Friday night, while the Tigers were more than competitive for three quarters against Melbourne. Carlton needs to win this week to shore up a top 8 position, as they meet Geelong and travel to Perth to take on Fremantle for rounds 21 and 22, while the Tiger cubs are starting to show some fatigue as their season draws to an end. Carlton has won the last 4 between the teams and has too much to play for. Back Carlton 24.5+ @ 2.05
SD: Come on Tigers; sign up Cus for another year! The great man has been in tremendous form despite the constant criticism from muppets like Craig Hutchinson. The best move by Richmond is to sign him up again so he can mentor their outstanding crop of young midfielders. Unfortunately for the Tigers he isn’t enough to get them over the line against a very inconsistent Blues side. The Blues have it all to play for and a loss here would surely end their season. Judd, Gibbs and Murphy have all hit their straps at the pointy end of the season and the dynamic duo of Betts and Gartlett should be enough to get them over the line. The Blues in a close one so I’m backing the under 39.5 @$2.25
Fremantle V Sydney
JD: Anchors away! Fremantle and Sydney meet on Saturday at Subiaco, with Freo needing to get back on the winners list to build some momentum leading into September. This will be only the 3rd meeting and the venue since 2004 with Fremantle winning the previous 2.With Aaron Sandilands expected to return the Dockers will be hard to beat. Back Fremantle 16 or more @ 2.07.
SD: Sandilands is no certainty! It won’t make any difference though. Fremantle save their best for the west and with 2 home games remaining don’t expect them to risk their star players coming into the finals. If they win these 2 home games they are guaranteed a home final. Sydney has been a bit of an enigma this year. Up, down, up, down, the bloods are harder to pick than a broken nose. Expect them to go hard early, however the young legs of the Dockers should stretch the old boys and result in a bit of a blowout. Although the Swans don’t get beaten by big margins often I’m tipping a +39.5 result for the Dockers @$4.00
Western Bulldogs V Geelong
JD: September preview? In what shapes as one of the matches of the season, the Western Bulldogs take on Geelong on Saturday night at Etihad Stadium. The Dogs have been in a rich vein of form winning their last 5, while the Cats will be hoping to get back on winners list after being well beaten by Collingwood last week. The last two times these teams have met at Etihad stadium the margins have been 14 and 2 points respectively, and another tight game is expected. Back either team under 15.5 @ 2.75.
SD: Dogged! Whilst I agree with my esteemed colleague here, the fact is half the Doggies are sick or recovering from sickness and coupled with a tough grind in atrocious conditions last week, will leave them a bit flat. Pity this game is being played at Jihad stadium. The surface is rubbish and it would be a tragedy if either team got a serious injury at this time of year. The Cats were stunned by the Pies last week so expect them to come out all guns blazing. With Cooney out the Cats midfield will pulverise Boyd and Co providing ample opportunity for the J Pod, Stevie J and the Moondog. Geelong 121+ Points @$5.50 should be money for old rope.
Port Adelaide V West Coast
JD: Power charge! The other Saturday night game features Port Power and the West Coast Eagles at AAMI stadium. The Power were comprehensively defeated by St Kilda last week in Melbourne but return to familiar surrounds , while the Eagles would be deflated after a last minute defeat at the hands of the Brisbane. The Power has won 9 out of the last 10 against the Eagles and expect that form to continue. Back the Power 24.5+ @ 2.20.
SD: Primed for failure. Port Adelaide is a nothing side. No heart, no effort and no mojo. Up to 3 players could leave at the end of the year bound for other clubs. The once powerful SANFL side has gone bust after dominating for the last 50 years. Three years ago this once exciting young side played off for the premiership. What has gone wrong? Who knows who cares? I’m going to break 2 of Butsy’s All Form Rules here, 1. Avoid dead rubbers and 3. Dont buck the trend. I agree with Justin about the Eagles being a bit flat but they have enthusiasm and a genuine willingness to compete which cannot be said about the Power. Back the upset, Eagles Head 2 Head @$3.00
Brisbane V Adelaide
JD: Hoodoo to be broken. The Adelaide Crows travel to the Gabba on Sunday to take on the Brisbane Lions in a game that will have no influence on final 8 makeup. The Lions will be buoyed after their Jonathan Brown inspired victory over the Eagles last week, while the Crows gave a good account of themselves in greasy conditions against the Western Bulldogs. Adelaide has not won at the Gabba since round 9 2001 but they are great odds in the head to head betting this week. Back the Crows head to head @ 1.98
SD: Browns 200th! Buoyed by their last gasp win a week ago, the Lions have it all to play for this week when their inspirational captain, Jonathon Brown steps out for his 200th game. This time I’m going to follow Butsy’s All Form Rules No 3. Don’t buck the trend. After showing some life, the Crows have dropped off again. A very deflating loss last week where they couldn’t even manage a goal in the last quarter which surely would’ve given them victory over the Dogs but alas it wasn’t to be. The GABBA’s hard surface will trouble the Croweaters as they like the lush surrounds of AAMI Stadium. Milestone games for inspirational leaders shouldnt be lost so back the Lions under 24.5 @$3.55
Hawthorn V Melbourne
JD: Not happy Jeff! Hawthorn fresh from a disappointing two weeks on the road return to the MCG on Sunday to take on Melbourne, who are looking for their fourth consecutive victory. The Demons are making a late run for the final 8, while the Hawks appear to have hit the wall. Hawks president Jeff Kennett has made it clear to the Hawthorn players and supporters that their effort last week was unacceptable, and a much improved performance is expected. The Demons have lost the last 5 to the Hawks, and despite being high on confidence, the Hawks are expected to bounce back. Back Hawthorn -7.5 @1.90.
SD: Too many passengers! That was the woeful story for the Hawks last week. Ten players with 10 possessions or under will not win you many games. The selection of Simon Taylor was puzzling considering Wade Skipper has been outstanding as the backup to Renouf this year. Once again Taylor was thrashed and he showed us why he was playing reserves in the Taassie southern Old scholars years ago. Four outs in Taylor, Moss, Ladson and Suckling for Skipper, Hooper, Brown and Pieterson will be the tonic the Hawks need to continue their dominance over a young and improving Demons side. Hawks over 24.5 @$2.85
North V St. Kilda
JD: Saints on the march. The final match of the weekend sees St Kilda take on North Melbourne at Etihad stadium. Both teams are coming off big wins at the same venue last week. St Kilda were ultra impressive against the Port Power while the Kangaroos easily accounted for an undermanned Fremantle Dockers. When the two teams met in round 2 the Saints easily accounted for ‘Roos, with a 104 point victory. The saints are starting to warm up for September and while the 'Roos have been a surprise packet this year, expect the saints to win well. Back the Saints 39.5+ @2.7.
SD: Did North win the last time? No. They got absolutely pumped and the Saint march will continue this week in what has become my favourite fixture, the Sunday twilight game. Too strong for North who have too many good players missing. Saints again by 60+ @$5.30
Best Bet of the Round - Hawks over 24.5 @$2.85
Multi of the week - Geelong 121+ Points @$5.50 + Hawks over 24.5 @$2.85 + +39.5 Dockers @$4.00 = combined result of $65 for your $1 investment.
Get your heart pumping at www.thetote.com.au or call 132382 for Multi Betting
US PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
The tour returns to cheesehead country this week when the US PGA CHAMPIONSHIP tees off at Whistling Straits on the banks of Lake Michigan, Wisconsin. In one of only 12 links courses in the USA, Whistling Straits boasts a staggering 1000+ bunkers and is not for the faint hearted. With the recent demise of the once dominant Tiger Woods, this is the perfect opportunity for the Europeans to grab another major tournament. McIlroy and Harrington should feature prominantly and 2 good bets of arounf $4 for top 5 finishes is juicy. I like the odds of British Open winner Louis Oosthuizen @$61. He has had a couple of top 10 finishes in Europe and the USA plus his open win. The South African loves the links courses and at $61 you can’t pass it up. Mickleson starts as favourite and with the quote @$11 shows just how open this tournament will be.
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