Those that are racing experts every Melbourne Cup or track and field analysts every Olympics, need not apply. This is the World Cup of Football (The World Game) and it rarely throws out surprises. You don’t "fluke" a World Cup win (although the Poms did in 1966 when they won it with only 16 teams and a dodgy goal). The World Cup offers punters oodles of options to win heaps of cash. Alternatively it is also a trap for youngsters experiencing their first 'punting' world cup. The bookies go to extraordinary lengths to help you depart with your cash with some of the most ridiculous markets that run upwards of 140%. That means the bookies are making $40 for every $100 you spend when in reality it should be more like 114-118%. This gives the punter better odds and a greater chance to make some money.
MultiBets are the rage early on much like tennis grand slams. Load up on 4, 5 or even 6 teams that you like and get the bigger odds. As always use Butsy's All Form Rules and you can’t go wrong. Quite a few apply during the world cup. Here is a huge value multi that should give you a good ride in the first few days of the tournament.
The first game of the tournament featuring the hosts is going to be a huge emotional roller coaster. They have a good side albeit not exceptional however the 12th man theory will work with the crowd playing a massive part. Mexico is under the odds at $2.35 so my first leg is going to be the Springboks at $2.90.
The opening games of the tournament normally throw up a surprise or the odd upset and I think the Uruguay France game is a possible candidate. After finishing second to Serbia in qualifying France only reached the World Cup after a blatant handball from Thierry Henry which led to William Gallas’ winner in the second leg of their play-off against the Republic of Ireland. France have struggled on and off the pitch in the lead up to the World Cup, suffering a shocking friendly defeat against China and seeing Gallas react poorly when Manchester United star Patrice Evra was named the captain. The keys for Uruguay will be to put pressure on France with an early goal. Los Charruas will rely on the attacking of Atletico Madrid forward Diego Forlan for scoring. Paired with Luis Suarez, who had 10 goals in qualifying, Uruguay will be formidable up front. However we should never back against champions unless the other side is exceptional (Butsy’s All Form Rule #7) and the draw seems likely with this one so add as your 2nd leg at $3.25.
The big match everyone in Australia is waiting for. The Krauts V The Skips. A mismatch on paper. Germany has won this tournament 3 times and with an average age of 25.28, will field its youngest World Cup team since 1934. No Michael Ballack will hurt but Australia will pose little threat . A draw at best for the Aussies’s who incidentally are fielding the 3rd oldest team out of the 32 competing. It looks like we are going to go home in straight sets. Add Germany at $1.50.
The Argies are my tip to win the tournament. Argentina is sending the best players to South Africa, though with Diego Maradona in charge they may be anything but predictable. What is predictable is that they will smash Nigeria at $1.42 so make that your 4th leg.
Another interesting game is the The Yanks v The Poms. England have been in turmoil leading up to the event after qualifying quite easily. John Terry losing the captaincy and then Rio going down with an ankle. The normally reserved coach, Capello, was also seen losing it at a female photographer as they followed the lads on a Safari. As usual this is shaping up as another Pom failure. The Yanks on the other hand have never looked better. You do get the sense that they are improving all the time. Im going the Draw in this one at 3.85 for the 5th leg.
Just to finish off Im going to add a good value certainty. Slovakia will absolute smash our Kiwi neighbors. In fact I will be surprised if New Zealand gets a goal in their 3 games. A team that would struggle in the A-League and qualified against pacific islanders doest cut it on the big stage. Take the very generous odds of $1.40 for the Slovak win to round it out.
So the MultiBet is:
Saffas @$2.90
Frogs V Urur Draw @3.25
Argies @1.42
Krauts @1.50
Poms V Yanks Draw @3.85
Slovaks @1.40
Combined Odds $108.20. I’ll be having a tenner on that for a potential $1082.00 return.
Of course you can take any number of combos out of this lot and you would still be laughing. The Saffa, Argie, Kraut, Slovak quaddie is juicy at $8.64.
In summary here are my predictions for the World Cup:
Final
Brazil v Argentina (whose talent gets them there despite Diego Maradona). Argies win
Australia's prospects
Would love to see them progress to the round of 16 and a potential match up V the arch enemy but hope is more the word. Group stage elimination likely.
Dark horses
The Yanks are going to make a final one day.
Golden boot
Diego Forlan, Lionel Messi or Wayne Rooney
Emerging talent
The young Serbian winger Zoran Tosic will impress.
Controversy
Will definitely be a goal line scramble and a goal allowed that wasn’t or vice versa that will herald in technology for the 2014 Cup in Rio
I'm most looking forward to
Seeing the bookies get pole axed when Argentina or Uruguay win.
Many of my followers have asked me for the complete list of Butsy’s All Form Rules. They apply to all sports and can be interoperated as such. These rules have been compiled by some great minds at some of the biggest betting firms in the world and should be followed as if they are the Punting commandments. Please be prudent and remember all care taken but no responsibility taken.
BUTSY”S ALL FORM RULES
1. Avoid dead rubbers
2. Don’t take short odds for bad teams
3. Don’t buck the trend
4. Avoid exotic bets early in the season or tournament – First Goal Scorer, HT/FT etc
5. Never back St. Kilda first up interstate
6. Be wary of European action before and after Premiership matches
7. Don’t back against Champions unless other side is exceptional
8. Don’t take short odds in Derby games
9. Don’t take exotic bets for no reason
10. Don’t bet on Omen bets
11. Value bets are normally bad
12. Don’t take hatred or emotion into account
13. Don’t bet on Friday Night Football
14. Avoid ridiculous markets with high percentages
AFL Tips This Week
Carlton
Hawks
Cats
Port
West Coast
Doggies
Freo
Pies
Best Horse Punt for the Weekend.
Lay all the favourites at Flemington Saturday as the track has been ravaged by pests and the wet weather.
In QLD I’ve got a good feeling about Mic Mac in the Stradbroke. Its last 6 starts have all been at weight for age and he’s struggled. Back at handicap weights this Saturday he meets Whobegotyou 3kg better than when he beat him last time they met. The $26 on offer is ludicrous. Unload Each Way. My Flexi Quaddie will be 4, 8, 9, 14 / 3, 7, 18 / 1, 4, 5, 9, 16 / 2, 4, 8, 9, 15. $45 for 15%
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