Guest Tipster Justin ‘JD’ Devine & Shane ‘Butsy’ Donoghue
AFL ROUND 18
ESSENDON vs ST KILDA
JD: Will the Saints march on? St Kilda return to Etihad stadium this Friday where they take on an Essendon side buoyed by last week’s victory over North Melbourne. The saints will consider themselves lucky to have escaped with 2 points last week, and will be hoping to avenge their surprise loss to the bombers earlier this year. The saints will be short odds to win, but the value bet could be in the total game score market. While the saints have been involved in some low scoring matches this year, the bombers tend to be involved in high scoring games. Back the over in total match points if the line is 175.5 or below.
SD: See the Bombers fly up then down! Matthew Knights should be buying some scratchies this week. His struggling Bombers somehow conjured a miracle victory over a very undermanned North outfit and it will be hard to emulate that feat against the league’s toughest defense. I like JD’s bet on the total match points however I’m going for a bit of value and backing the Saints +39.5 @$2.35. Knights has no plan B and even with the return of David Hille the Bombers will get smashed. However I will be following Butsy’s All Form Rule No. 13. Don’t bet on Friday Night Football.
COLLINGWOOD vs CARLTON
JD: Pies to hold top spot a little while longer! Traditional rivals Collingwood and Carlton meet at the MCG on Saturday with a crowd in the vicinity of 80000 expected to attend. The Blues returned to the winners list with a come from behind victory over West Coast last weekend while the Magpies completely outclassed Richmond to continue on their impressive late season form. The Magpies have defeated the Blues by 50+ last two occasions and expect that they will be too classy again. Back Collingwood 39+ @2.35.
SD: Bitter rivalry renewed. There’s nothing better than a good old fashioned dust up and Collingwood V Carlton should not disappoint. I’m a Collingwood hater but credit where credit is due. The Pies look awesome and are worthy of the title of Premiership favorites. Can they be peaking too early? I doubt it. Carlton on the other hand was lucky to get the 4 points last week. If not for a totally insipid 2nd half by a very inexperienced Eagles outfit they would be a club in crisis. Their much vaunted ‘small forwards’ have gone missing with only Eddie Betts getting a piece of it albeit mainly on the ball. The pies are slow starters so I’m going a bit exotic here. Back Carlton @$3 in the Race to 25pts. After that it will be a Collingwood avalanche.
PORT ADELAIDE vs HAWTHORN
JD: Does Primus have Power primed? Hawthorn travels over to Adelaide on Saturday to take on Port Power in what is shaping as a crucial encounter for the Hawks. Having to settle for 2 points last week after having a seemingly unassailable lead would have stung the Hawks who are in red hot form with only 1 loss in their last 10 games while the Power finally got back into winners list in last week’s showdown against cross-town rivals Adelaide Crows. The power has won 7 of their last 10 meetings against the Hawks and while the betting suggests an easy win for the Hawks, caretaker coach Matthew Primus may have breathed new life into the Power list and the game may be a bit closer than expected. Back Power at the +21.5 line @ 1.90.
SD: Power Failure? The Hawks will be absolutely filthy they let those dirty rotten Saints get a share of the points last week. A road trip to Adelaide may be just the tonic they need to put the record straight. The Power is a struggling club. Don’t let last week’s result make you think any different. They always get up for the “Showdown” but history shows they suffer badly the following week. JD is right, the Prime mover is making inroads in getting the players to produce but the Hawks are simply too good. Back the Hawks to win between 40-49 @$9,
SYDNEY vs GEELONG
JD: Go Gazza! Reigning Premiers Geelong head to Sydney to take on the Swans at ANZ stadium in a crucial encounter for both sides. The swans were very disappointing last week against Melbourne while the cats had little more than a glorified training run against the hapless Lions. The match betting points towards a cat victory, and it’s hard to argue with that. Gary Ablett is averaging 37 disposals per game in his last 4 outings against the Swans, expect him to be prominent again and back him for high possession winner.
SD: Swans Unchanged? WTF? I couldn’t believe my eyes last night when it was reported that the Swans have an unchanged line-up going into this game. They were flogged last week by Melbourne, their heaviest defeat under the unflappable Paul Roos. In typical Roos fashion he has sent the players a statement by not making a change. Are they good enough to challenge the Cats. Simple answer NO. The Cats will be buoyed by the return of the Tomahawk and with Gary junior finding his rhythm up forward I can’t see the Swans getting close. Gary Jnr a steal for first goal scorer @$15
MELBOURNE vs BRISBANE
JD: The Bookies have this one back to front! Melbourne travel to Brisbane fresh from a confidence boosting win against the Swans last week, while Brisbane's season is going from bad to worse after another large defeat, this time at the hands of the cats. When these teams met earlier this year the Demons claimed a 50 point victory and there is no reason that this result will be reversed in Brisbane. Surprisingly Brisbane has been installed as slight favorites for this game, despite Melbourne’s good form last form and Brisbane's poor form. Back the demons @ 2.03 head to head
SD: Voss is a total DUD! Brisbane are weak, woeful, decimated and broken. The club in their wisdom has decided to have an end of season review conducted by none other than the major culprit, Michael Voss. What a joke! Making the finals last year because of other teams being bad rather than the Bears being good covered up some major coaching issues. He is hopeless and like Knghts has no plan B and no idea. The Dees on the other hand are on the rise and @$2 the win this is money for old rope.
RICHMOND vs ADELAIDE
JD: Tigers to bite back! Even though they have dropped their last two games Richmond look a good value bet when they take on the Adelaide Crows at the MCG on Sunday. When these teams met in round 7 the tigers looked capable of a huge upset at3 quarter time, only to be convincingly defeated by 50 points. However both teams have shown an improvement in form as the season has evolved and with Jack Riewoldt on song, the tigers look capable of an upset. Back the Tigers @ 2.30
SD: The Crow has flown. The Crows came crashing back down to earth last week with another showdown disappointment. As pointed out earlier, the showdown has done neither the Crows nor Power any favours the following week. Bock looked slow and it seems the beach umbrella is packed for him. Tippet is their major concern. After promising the world last year, he has delivered an atlas this year. The young Tigers will be disappointed in going down so meekly last week and the bubble has well and truly burst. This game will be close and could go either way so I’m tipping either team Under15.5 points @$3.15
WESTERN BULLDOGS vs NORTH MELBOURNE
JD: The Doggies have regained their bite! Last week’s demolition of top 4 contender Fremantle showed the football world that the Western Bulldogs have put the Jason Akermanis saga behind them , and that they are gearing up for an attack on the flag in September. This Sunday they take on North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, who lost a very tight encounter against Essendon last weekend. Also of interest will be the matchup of Barry Hall and Scott Thompson after fireworks they created earlier this year. The reality is that the dogs won by 70 points then and will do something similar this week. Back the Bulldogs to win by 39.5@2.27.
SD: I wouldnt like to be Scott Thompson. I love it when big bad Barry gets fired up and I’ll certainly be watching the first 20 minutes of this clash on Sunday. Revenge will be sweet for the big man and North will have no answer. The Dogs needed to make a statement last week and did they just. They walloped a very ordinary Fremantle and Boyd, Cooney and co put on a clinic through the centre of the ground. North have some talent with Andrew Swallow showing us why he was so highly rated but that will not be enough to stop the Dogs. Beware the Doggies for they are coming! Wst Bulldogs Under 39.5 Pts @$2.30
THE DERBY
JD:Freo heave ho! Fremantle and West Coast meet in the Derby on Sunday afternoon at Subiaco in a game which takes on great importance to the Dockers top 4 aspirations. After a heavy defeat to the Western Bulldogs last week the Dockers need to regain the winning feeling, while the West Coast will be disappointed with their loss last week against Carlton when they seemed to be in control at half time. Fremantle have won the last 6 Derbies and it’s hard to see them losing this week. Matthew Pavlich kicked 5 goals when these two teams met in Round 6 and he will once again pose some problems for the West Coast Eagles. Back Matthew Pavlich for top goal scorer in the match.
SD: Worsfolds last Derby? The Eagles are a bad side. A very bad side. They have no forwards, no backs and their midfield is struggling. Freo have hit a bit of a flat spot with injuries starting to take their toll on the young Dockers. This will not be enough to gift the Eagles a victory however. As JD pointed out, the Pav loves a local derby and should kick a bag. Stephen Hill has been down in recent weeks but he had an absolute blinder in the preceding derby game. Back this boy to be the highest possy winner.
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