Barry nearly lost it, Gazza hasn’t signed and its school social time for the Saints boys. Just another week in the AFL really!! And of course there is Butsy's Best for the weekend.
Ok so I didn’t pick 8 winners last week, shoot me. I did, however, make a profit with the 5 winners I did pick. I was pretty stiff with Port Adelaide yet I was horribly wrong with the Swans. Those of you that loaded up on the Cats, Crows and Hawks would be loving it.
This week’s games don’t really get the juices flowing but I have found a few gems worth the risk. Every game has the favourite at short odds. The longest of the favourites is the Doggies at $1.36. Even though we will be breaking the rules (Butsy's All Form Rule #13 - Don’t bet on Friday Night football) I will be unloading on the Doggies here. They have shown that they are getting better as the season gets longer. The Dogs have suffered with a small dose of Premiership hangover albeit a pre-season one, but they are back in town and will demolish a poorly coached and inconsistent Essendon who have not won two in a row this year. Short odds in the AFL opens up the door for the exotics. The Tri-Bet is always a good option. (www.tab.com.au) and the $1.70 on offer for the Dogs 15+ seems to be money for old rope.
Brisbane's woeful form looks to be a bonanza for punters. A couple of weeks ago I was all over Freo like a cheap suit at $2.75. Last week punters got $2.15 for the Crows and this week gives us another chance to clean up. Although the $1.30 is short, there is nothing more certain than a Collingwood win this week. I will also be taking the $3.00 on offer for the Pies 39+. I'm not a Michael Voss fan and it is very satisfying seeing him struggle. He pompously and arrogantly thought that he could just walk into coaching because his shit didn’t stink. They, very unwisely, recruited fill ins rather than young talent and even though Fev and Maguire have been good for them, when you are poorly coached it doesn’t matter who is playing for them.
I seem to be the Polar opposite to the Swans. When I tip them to be cold, they are hot and vice versa. I will be the first to admit that I do not like the Swans. There "North of the Border" style of play really got under my skin. "Tempo" football was bad for the AFL yet one must give credit where credit is due. Paul Roos is a super coach. They won the flag playing this bland, boring style and should have won 2 really. Roos used the cattle he had to develop a win at all costs game plan and it worked. In hindsight it has pioneered the "Zone" style of play which in turn has spawned its offspring style off "Run and Carry" which has been great. This week, none of that is going to work for the Swans. No Bradshaw and Kenneally will severely hamper them. After tipping them with confidence last week I'm going to equally confident in tipping their demise this week. Hawks 39+ at $3.00 is great value and I'm jumping on it.
The St Kilda V Adelaide game looks interesting. With this scandal breaking today (Wednesday) it’s hard to say whether or not this will affect the playing group. I noticed that TAB Sportsbet suspended their betting on this match so you never know what could happen and the Crows ($4.05) coming off 2 wins in a row play Jihad stadium well and I just smell the whiff of an upset on the cards.
For the remaining games Geelong are unbackable at $1.03, Port Adelaide ($1.17) will account for the inexperienced Tigers and Carlton ($1.18) will have its work cut out in the West. Freo will hammer the Roos but I won’t be touching the $1.10 being offered. A nice little multi of Hawks +39.5, Blues -39.5 and Freo will return you a healthy $6.86 for your $1. (www.tab.com.au)
Although I'm not a massive fan of futures bets, I think there are two near shoe ins in the Brownlow and Coleman medal markets where punters can wipe the floor. Gary Ablett Jnr is an absolute superstar. Never before has there been a player of his unbelievable ball handling ability. His quote off $3.75 is the easiest money you will ever make barring injury. Even if he does miss 4-5 games I think he will still clean up. For the Coleman I just can’t go past my personal favourite, Buddy Love. Love is back in town and if the Hawks can string some form together you can expect Buddy to claim some big hauls. The $9 on offer looks very appealing.
Tips then are:
Doggies
Cats
Port
Pies
Crows
Hawks
Blues
Freo
Butsy
PS. Dont forget to vote in the AKER poll on the RHS
(Odds courtesy of www.thetote.com.au & www.tab.com.au)
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