The footy is back on the box and the autumn carnival starts this weekend (albeit 3 weeks early) so as usual Butsy will be doing his best to win you some $$$'s....but don't bank on it and of course bet responsibly. After a disastrous Cricket season (Cricket Australia - The Blame Game) it will be just nice to see a winner of some sort. The new look NAB Cup kicks off tonight over in Croweater land with Adelaide, Melbourne and Port doing battle at football park. However Butsy's ALL FORM RULE (BAFR) #13 Never bet on Friday Football prevents us from having a plunge. Even without this rule it is very hard to risk cash on a meaningless competition which is surely in it's death throes. However it will be great to see the Tassie boy, Ian Callinan, finally get his chance at the highest level. It may be worth having a punt on him as the highest possession winner in the Crows matches although finding a bookmaker that has that market may be challenging this early in the season. All in all I'm staying right away from the NAB cup because at the end of day the games are meaningless and BAFR # 1 Avoid dead rubbers seems fairly applicable.
A few of the local lads have been hounding Butsy all week in regards to the Hobart Cup which is run on Sunday. Over the years the much maligned Elwick track has been a graveyard for mainland horses with big reputations however form suggests that this may change on Sunday. The New Zealand born, Montjeu sire Mr Tipsy seems like very good value @$8.50. He won a listed race in Awapuni on Jan 15 before flopping in the Wellington Cup 2 weeks later as favourite. Upon examination by the vet after the race he was found to have a windpipe problem which was very quickly remedied. He seems to like the Dead/Good tracks and if Hobart can stay dry get on him. Red Buttons and Fast Future should definitely be included in your multiples with last years third placegetter and Tote favourite, Dream Peddler rounding out the first four. The Charlie Goggin trained Too Many Reds should salute in race 8 to fill the pockets back full of cash and round out a handy double.
Saturdays CF ORR stakes day looks a ripper with plenty of chances. It is the first group I race of the year in Australia and kicks off the campaigns of the best gallopers around the country. Both Manikato and Vo Rogue won it three times with notable winners since the 90s including Let’s Elope, Durbridge, Saintly, Redoute’s Choice, Lonhro and Elvestroem. Typhoon Tracy is aiming to be the first back-to-back winner since Vo Rogue in 1990 and only the fourth of all time with Lord being the other in 1960.
Caulfield
BEADED (Caulfield Race 9 No. 1): She has only missed a place once in her life and that was probably her best career performance when extremely brave finishing fourth in the Stradbroke from a carpark draw. Only had the one run in the spring and again mixed it right up with the best when 2nd a half length to Whitefriars in the Salinger. Gets in well with the set weights and penalties, like earlier WW selections, the wide gate could be ok with the tendancy to get away from the fence late in the day at Caulfield. Ideal position for her is just off the pace and she is such a trier, backing her at each-way odds is a gift.
FAINT PERFUME (Caulfield Race 8 No. 15): Probably wont win but since Ive read Bart Cummings autobiography I have backed Bart all the way and at $41 you cant go wrong.
Randwick
Tipping it’s going to be a good autumn for the Randwick horses. Let’s hope they start now.
SHARED REFLECTIONS (Race 1 No 2): Trained on well enough from the debut win to put herself into this grade of race.
WRITTEN CONSENT (Race 2 No 4): Looks to have improved off the debut and should be some value. Gambling on the Shared Reflections formline holding up.
SECRET ADMIRER (Race 6 No 1): Looks to be coming up well. Short of her best but in a race thin on chances and she’s great value for a horse with her talent.
MORE JOYOUS (Race 5 No 1): won eight in a row prior to her Cox Plate fifth. and looks the goods up at Randwick in Race 5.
As always I have included my Blackbookers which should only be used as a guide and they certainly are not sure things. Read the comments carefully and always check the form on the day for any new twists. Good Punting!
BlackBookers
Bendigo
A few of the local lads have been hounding Butsy all week in regards to the Hobart Cup which is run on Sunday. Over the years the much maligned Elwick track has been a graveyard for mainland horses with big reputations however form suggests that this may change on Sunday. The New Zealand born, Montjeu sire Mr Tipsy seems like very good value @$8.50. He won a listed race in Awapuni on Jan 15 before flopping in the Wellington Cup 2 weeks later as favourite. Upon examination by the vet after the race he was found to have a windpipe problem which was very quickly remedied. He seems to like the Dead/Good tracks and if Hobart can stay dry get on him. Red Buttons and Fast Future should definitely be included in your multiples with last years third placegetter and Tote favourite, Dream Peddler rounding out the first four. The Charlie Goggin trained Too Many Reds should salute in race 8 to fill the pockets back full of cash and round out a handy double.
Saturdays CF ORR stakes day looks a ripper with plenty of chances. It is the first group I race of the year in Australia and kicks off the campaigns of the best gallopers around the country. Both Manikato and Vo Rogue won it three times with notable winners since the 90s including Let’s Elope, Durbridge, Saintly, Redoute’s Choice, Lonhro and Elvestroem. Typhoon Tracy is aiming to be the first back-to-back winner since Vo Rogue in 1990 and only the fourth of all time with Lord being the other in 1960.
Caulfield
BEADED (Caulfield Race 9 No. 1): She has only missed a place once in her life and that was probably her best career performance when extremely brave finishing fourth in the Stradbroke from a carpark draw. Only had the one run in the spring and again mixed it right up with the best when 2nd a half length to Whitefriars in the Salinger. Gets in well with the set weights and penalties, like earlier WW selections, the wide gate could be ok with the tendancy to get away from the fence late in the day at Caulfield. Ideal position for her is just off the pace and she is such a trier, backing her at each-way odds is a gift.
FAINT PERFUME (Caulfield Race 8 No. 15): Probably wont win but since Ive read Bart Cummings autobiography I have backed Bart all the way and at $41 you cant go wrong.
Randwick
Tipping it’s going to be a good autumn for the Randwick horses. Let’s hope they start now.
SHARED REFLECTIONS (Race 1 No 2): Trained on well enough from the debut win to put herself into this grade of race.
WRITTEN CONSENT (Race 2 No 4): Looks to have improved off the debut and should be some value. Gambling on the Shared Reflections formline holding up.
SECRET ADMIRER (Race 6 No 1): Looks to be coming up well. Short of her best but in a race thin on chances and she’s great value for a horse with her talent.
MORE JOYOUS (Race 5 No 1): won eight in a row prior to her Cox Plate fifth. and looks the goods up at Randwick in Race 5.
As always I have included my Blackbookers which should only be used as a guide and they certainly are not sure things. Read the comments carefully and always check the form on the day for any new twists. Good Punting!
BlackBookers
Bendigo
EL MIRAGE
Bendigo Race 3 No 12 - Follow
Caulfield
VIVID VIXEN
Caulfield Race 2 No 15 - Impressive horse. Follow
WIND SHEAR
Caulfield Race 2 No 5 - Include in multiples
ECLAIR MYSTIC
Caulfield Race 3 No 4 - Has plenty of talent. Follow. Include in multiples
ECLAIR SURPRISE
Caulfield Race 3 No 2 - Beat Rockstardom on debut at Geelong. Expecting bigger things
BOYS ON TOUR
Caulfield Race 4 No 7 - Include in multiples
MISS GAI FLYER
Caulfield Race 6 No 9 - Include in multiples
WILLOW CREEK
Caulfield Race 6 No 2 - I'm excited.
CRISTALLO
Caulfield Race 6 No 4 - Something special.
DANZYLUM
Caulfield Race 7 No 7 - Include in multiples
FAINT PERFUME
Caulfield Race 7 No 15 - Bart trained. Love her.
LINTON
Caulfield Race 7 No 10 - Great horse. Massacres his rivals.
MOUDRE
Caulfield Race 7 No 9 – distance suits, Include in multiples
WORDMASTER
Caulfield Race 8 No 12 – Massive chance, has matured into a lovely horse
AVENUE
Caulfield Race 8 No 5 - Include in multiples
SOLAR CHARGED
Caulfield Race 8 No 13 – Top prospect
WINTER KING
Caulfield
CATAPULTED
Caulfield Race 8 No 1 - Include in multiples
VARENNA MISS
Caulfield Race 9 No 10 - Include in multiples
I'M DISCREET
Caulfield Race 9 No 8 – Include in multiples
LA BELLA ROO
Caulfield Race 9 No 12 - Gun. She is a beauty.
Eagle Farm
LYNCEAN ACADEMY
Eagle Farm Race 3 No 2 - Follow
EPIC
Eagle Farm Race 5 No 5 - Follow
EXTREME MOVER
Eagle Farm Race 5 No 1 - Follow
GO FOREST GO
Eagle Farm Race 8 No 11 - Follow, standout. Well bred.
Kembla Grange
MASKHARA
Kembla Race 4 No 10 - Follow
RED ENSIGN
Kembla Race 6 No 1 - Follow
Morphettville
OCEAN CHALLENGER
Morphettville Parks Race 1 No 1 – Lovely type
FLYING TESSIE
Morphettville Parks Race 7 No 1 - Kept coming hard.
Randwick
FITNESS FANATIC
Randwick Race 3 No 7 – Include in multiples
DAILIKA
Randwick Race 3 No 12 – Include in multiples
SCOUTING WIDE
Randwick Race 3 No 1 – Great horse.
KILLIAN
Randwick Race 4 No 11 - Promising type
NO EVIDENCE NEEDED
Randwick Race 5 No 4 - Stick with her. Include in multiples
MORE JOYOUS
Randwick Race 5 No 1 – Put your house on it, the girl is back
BUFFALO
Randwick Race 8 No 11 - Will develop into a good galloper. Needs luck.
Toowoomba
EXTREME MOVER
Toowoomba Cushion Race 2 No 2 – Shown glimpses of promise. EW
that's a long list of blackbookers but well done for spotting Miss Gai Flyer.
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