Once again we will be traveling to the cricket mad Sub-Continent to contest the 2011 ICC Cricket World Cup. A cricket culture as unique as the countries that make up this part of Asia. The locals talk about cricket, cricket and then some more cricket. With it's spinning wickets and hostile crowds, the Indians must start favourites. A tough series in South Africa preceding this tournament showed us that they are vulnerable but underlying that series loss one would think the Indians used it as a shrewd warm up to the more important stage coming.
The last time the World Cup was staged here Sri Lanka announced themselves to the cricket world as a genuine cricket power. Sri Lanka revolutionised the way the game was played by using explosive batting in the early overs setting a platform for their middle order to consolidate and then strangling the opposition batting by bowling spin in the early overs on the dusty flat turning wickets of Asia. However that was 15 years ago and times have changed. Since then Australia has won 3 in a row including an amazing 27 games without defeat, a record that one would think will never be beaten. Power plays have since been introduced as well as video replays. All in all it is shaping up as one of the most even tournaments in its relatively young history and finding an outright winner will be very difficult.
As always on the sub-continent, winning the toss will be crucial. Getting in early on the slow turning wickets will be vital in an effort to negate the effectiveness of the slow bowling. The early matches wont have any effect on the outcome and the first 30 days is shaping as a marketing managers dream. Meaningless games it what will surely result in the top 8 teams in the world making it through to the QF stage. Ireland surprised us all in 2007 and they could provide some nuisance value this time at the expense of a terrible New Zealand outfit but that is the only chance of a shock. The last 2 weeks of the tournament will see the best teams square off in crucial do or die contests and will no doubt test the mettle of the better sides. Surprisingly, Australia are still ranked number one in the ICC ODI rankings followed closely by India, Sri Lanka, South Africa and England. I cannot see the Semis being contested by any other teams.
The Chances:
INDIA: Obviously the favourite. Only tasted World Cup success once in 1983 when Kapil Dev smashed 175. They are due and the Indian selectors have chosen a side that can adapt to any situation. They have arguably the best top 7 in the tournament as well as some handy part time spin bowlers to back up the dangerous Harbajan. They are under tremendous pressure to win however if they dont look to far ahead and concentrate on winning one game at a time they are good enough to go all the way.
MOST RUNS: Tendulkar, Gambhir
MOST WICKETS: Harbajan
STRENGTHS: Home crowds, Explosive batting lineup
WEAKNESSES: Bowling, no backup keeper if Dhoni gets injured.
AUSTRALIA: Always a chance. Have gone 27 world cup games without tasting defeat. They normally play well on the sub-continent and they have experience in the conditions. However Australia are very unfit and the selection of 4 pace bowlers and only one specialist spinner will come back and haunt them
MOST RUNS: Clarke - best player of spin in the side
MOST WICKETS: Krezja, Lee
STRENGTHS: Experience
WEAKNESSES: Pace attack
SOUTH AFRICA: As much as I dislike them, I have a gut feeling they will do well. They have a wealth of experience with Smith and Kallis at the top of the order and no doubt they will have learnt from mistakes made in past years. Steyn and Morkel are the best opening combo in world cricket whilst Amla, Kallis and De Villiers are in outstanding form. Expect the spinner Imran Tahir to play a massive role as well.
MOST RUNS: Kallis
MOST WICKETS: Steyn
STRENGTHS: Well balanced and in form.
WEAKNESSES: Biggest chokers on the big stage since the Boston strangler.
SRI LANKA: In what will be his last hurrah, Murali will no doubt be the key to Sri Lanka's success. Malinga will be as fiery as ever and Jayawardene, Sangakkara and Samaraweera make up a formidable middle order. After making the final in 2007 only to be soundly beaten, the wounds run deep and expect a very determined and spirited Sri Lankan side who on balance probably look the best team.
MOST RUNS: Sangakkara
MOST WICKETS: Murali
STRENGTHS: Never say die attitude
WEAKNESSES: Bowling stocks may suffer if they get belted early.
PAKISTAN: Good team with some individual brilliance. A little bit of an unknown and as such will be my dark horse for the tournament. Solid bowling attack with some explosive batting in Shehzad, Afridi and Ul Haq. Betting scandal should not effect them.
MOST RUNS: Misbah Ul Haq
MOST WICKETS: Razzaq
STRENGTHS: Unpredictable
WEAKNESSES: Consistency
ENGLAND, WEST INDIES, BANGERS, NEW ZEALAND - All will provide nuisance value. The Poms are playing like shot ducks and apart from being well coached and captained their one day form suggests that they just want to go home. The Windies have Gayle, Pollard and the Bravo brothers and have some X Factor but little else. Playing at home the Bangers could be a surprise quarter finalist but wont progress from there and finally New Zealand are playing so poorly I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't make the quarters at all.
PREDICTIONS:
Winner: India
Runner Up: South Africa
Most Runs: Gambhir
Most Wickets: Steyn
Dark Horse: Pakistan
Lay: Australia
Biggest Moment: 1st 200 will be scored in WC history probably by Gambir or Tendulkar
Lowest Moment: A minnow will be bowled out for less than 50.
Biggest Surprise: Kenya defeating New Zealand in the 2nd match of the tournament.
Tearjerker: Sachin playing his last match.
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