Butsy's Best for the Weekend

What a huge week in sport it has been. AFL finals, Champions League Soccer and Cricket, Basketball World Cup, Black Type horse racing, EPL resuming, NFL season kicking off and the MLB regular season coming to a close. A punters smorgasbord.

AFL FINALS

Locally, the AFL is reaching the pointy end of the season which has seen the best 4 teams this year slug it out this week in do or die Prelim finals. Geelong V Collingwood tonight is shaping up as the one of the best finals we will ever witness. I just cannot split these teams and although I hate Collingwood with all my heart I must follow Butsy's all form rule no.12 Don't take hatred into account. Collingwood SHOULD win but I'm not that confident. What I am confident about is that it is going to be a relatively low scoring nail-biter. There are 2 bets that interest me here. The Tribet (Any Team Under 15.5 points)@$2.85 (www.thetote.com.au) and the Pick The Score Double (COL 76-90 Pt/GLG 76-90 Pt)@$12.00 (www.tab.com.au).

St Kilda V Bulldogs is going to be another tough one. Going on form alone one would have to say that the Saints will be too good for the undermanned Doggies. However you cannot measure spirit and courage and the Bulldogs have plenty of that. Dale Morris is a big in for the Dogs and he should get the job on Captain Roo. Where this game will be won though is in the midfield. Hayes, Montagna, Goddard, Jones, Dal Santo and Gardiner will simply be too good in the stoppages. Cooney is a massive loss and whilst Boyd, Cross and Griffen will soldier on they wont get the chocolates. I'll be backing the Saints Under 39.5@$2.25(www.thetote.com.au)

Brownlow Medal 2010

Don't forget the Brownlow Monday night.A great opportunity to multi up highest vote getters from each team a make a large wad of cash. JD has kindly submitted his summary below:

A look at recent winners establishes a clear pattern, and should assist when deciding who to bet on. Since 2000 there has been 12 Brownlow medals awarded (there was a 3 way tie in 2003) and no player has won the Brownlow in that time from a team that has not played in finals. Of the 12 Brownlow medalists in the period only 2 have come from a team that finished outside the top 4, Chris Judd when playing for West Coast Eagles (7th) in 2004 and Adelaide's Mark Ricciuto (6th) who shared the medal with two others in 2003. The last 12 Brownlow medalists all played the majority of their games as onballers or midfielders.

What does this all mean? Using the last 10 years results we can narrow the field down significantly. The Brownlow medalist is likely to be a midfielder who plays with a top 4 team. The bad news is that the Bookmakers also have access to this information and a look at the Brownlow betting market shows that 11 of the top 19 in Brownlow betting are midfielders from top 4 sides as listed below:

SWAN, D (COLL) $1.90
ABLETT JNR., G (GEE) $4.70
PENDLEBURY, S (COLL) $14
GODDARD, B (STK) $16
HAYES, L (STK) $23
SELWOOD, J (GEE) $31
MONTAGNA, L (STK) $51
BARTEL, J (GEE) $61
COONEY, A (WBD) $61
BOYD, M (WBD) $81
CROSS, D (WBD) $101

Any way you look at it, Collingwood's Dane Swan looks very hard to beat. He has played all 22 games and averaged just under 32 disposals per game, in a team that only lost 4 games and had 1 draw. Second favourite Gary Ablett is his obvious danger; he averaged 31 disposals in 21 games, with his 44 goals being a real X factor for him. Swan's main competitor for votes at Collingwood will be Scott Pendlebury who averaged 26 disposals , while St Kilda's Brendon Goddard (29 disposals) Lenny Hayes ( 26 disposals) and Leigh Montagna (29 disposals) should all poll well, however the St Kilda trio may be competing for votes which will make it difficult for them to win. Gary Ablett's main competition for votes will be Joel Selwood (28 disposals) and 2007 winner Jimmy Bartel (25 disposals) while 4th placed Western Bulldogs have Adam Cooney (25 disposals), Daniel Cross (26 disposals) and Matthew Boyd (30 disposals) all in the market, but it is unlikely the winner will come from these three.

If you want to back the Brownlow winner it looks like a 2 horse race, Dane Swan or Gary Ablett, but THE TOTE is offering a number of other betting options for the punter that may provide a bit more value. The Most votes per club market is one such market . Jobe Watson is 1.36 to poll most votes for Essendon a quote that may be too short, while any other player at Essendon looks a good bet at odds of 2.9. Port Power ball magnet Kane Cornes averaged 27 disposals per game and looks a great bet at 2.50 to lead the Power's betting, while wooden spooners West Coast Eagles are not expected to poll a lot of votes, midfielder Matt Priddis is a very short price of 1.30 to lead their tally. All Australian forward pocket and West Coast Eagles best and fairest Mark LeCras looks to be the value bet at 3.90 to topple Priddis. Another good value bet is for the leader after Round 11. Fremantle's Michael Barlow had an unbelievable start to the year for a first year player and is a good price at 5.50, with as much as 9.50 bet a few weeks ago. Gary Ablett is the 1.85 favourite in this market but if he is to go down it should be Barlow doing the damage.

On the Punt at the Races - Underwood and Gloaming Stakes Day

Geez I love this time of year. The Quality Equines starting out their Spring preparations looking for a Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup or the big, The Melbourne Cup. As the tracks start drying out and the horses get fitter, picking winners surprisingly gets easier. Early on in the prep it is a much taougher task but here are a few that I have picked out for you.

THE RACE: The Group I Underwood Stakes, boasts an honour roll that includes Northerly (twice), Tie The Knot, Octagonal, Bonecrusher, Rain Lover, all the way back to Phar Lap in 1931. So You Think is the odds-on favourite for this years event, with the race history in his favour. 11 horses have completed the Memsie Stakes / Underwood double that he will be striving for, two of them in the last four years, being Weekend Hussler in 2008 and El Segundo in 2006. Four-year-olds have a great record, winning seven of the last 15 Underwoods. Favoured runners have a strong enough record; four winning in the last decade, Northerly winning as a very close second pick in 2002, the rest all under double figures except Rubiscent at $41 in 2007. As far as odds-on favourites go, there have been three since 1994. Mahogany ran third that year at $1.80, whilst Northerly (2001, $1.80) and Weekend Hussler (2008, $1.50) both did the right thing for those taking the shorts. Looking ahead, 13 horses have completed the Underwood / Cox Plate double.

 STAR BET – SASA (Rosehill Race 6 No. 11): Always shown a huge amount of ability and comes into this with the strong Golden Rose form-line that was franked by Ilovethiscity at Newcastle on Wednesday. He was the obvious unlucky runner in the Golden Rose, but Sasa’s run was outstanding. The increase in distance is right up her alley and as a type, you will struggle to get one better in the race. The good track is another big plus and she’ll be close to her peak. The standout of the day.  RIGHTFULLY YOURS (Caulfield Race 7 No.4): The course and distance suits perfectly and he rates highly against this opposition. At the very least, should be placed. Back him each-way.

VALUE BET – SHADOW MINISTER (Rosehill Race 2 No. 8): One of the most important form factors is position in running which was highlighted last week at Rosehill with nearly all the winners getting the run of the race. It is even more important with this lower class of stayers, they simply can’t afford to give anything away. Shadow Minister, from barrier five, looks like she will lob in the box seat and get the perfect run. Dandee Topwin, drawn in four, will cross to lead which will bring her across to sit just behind the pace of him, Portos and Quick As A Fox. She only has one win from 13 starts, but has run second seven times. However, her best distance range is 2000m with a win and a three quarter length second to Ironstein, who was flying at the time, three runs back. She’s on the way up through her distances, which is a plus, and gets in with 52kg with Nathan Berry’s claim. Currently $6.00, and at that, is an each-way moral.
SPINNEY (Rosehill Race 8 No. 5): This horse never handles wet tracks so forget his first-up run in the Tramway. Second-up he’s had eight starts and been in the money on four occasions and on good tracks he’s won seven and been placed another nine time from 30 runs. Go back to December last year, he ran third in the Villiers. From barrier two he’ll do no work and I expect there to be a bit of pressure on up front which is another plus. Worth a gamble. At the moment $51 Fixed odds (www.thetote.com.au)

CHANGE OF LUCK - WOORIM (Caulfield Race 7 No.10): Woorim resumed from a 10-week break with a very unlucky effort at Moonee Valley last Saturday. He got back and never got a crack at them before making good ground under no pressure to finish on the heels of the placegetters. With any luck, Woorim could have won a handy race and been a lot shorter than his $14 quote to win Saturday’s Clayton’s Group I, the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
 

IT’S TIME – IRISH LIGHTS (Caulfield Race 9 No.4) This mare has not won since scoring a Group I win in last year’s Thousand Guineas at Caulfield but has shown signs this time in she might be ready to produce her best. The four-year-old looked well, but a run short, in the mounting yard at Flemington before looming up and failing to go on with it behind No Evidence Needed last time out. She will be spot on for Saturday and gets her favoured dry track. If she can’t win here, perhaps the breeding barn beckons. Blinkers on. THE UNDERWOOD - SO YOU THINK (Caulfield Race 6 No.10): The pace will suit and he is in tremendous form. The only worry is that he's very short. Maybe box up a First Four and include Shocking, Red Ruler, Zavite and Largo Lad.

BLACK BOOKERS

FANTASTIC BLUE - Doomben Race 8 No 6
THE MARAIS - Gold Coast Race 4 No 5
AGAINST THE DAY - Kembla Race 5 No 2

Remember to got to (www.thetote.com.au) for all the latest odds.