And then there were two! After 184 matches, countless training sessions and ice baths the 2010 AFL season will come to a close on Saturday when Collingwood meets St Kilda in the Grand Final. Collingwood have been in white hot form and confidence should be at an all time high after defeating the reigning premier Geelong by 41 points last Friday night, while St Kilda will also be buoyed after their 24 point come from behind victory over the Western Bulldogs. Neither team has tasted recent premiership success; Collingwood’s last premiership was in 1990 while St Kilda's only premiership win was in 1966, coincidentally against Collingwood. When the two teams met in Round 16 it was the Pies who ran out convincing 48 point victors with Dane Swan amassing 36 disposals. Prior to the Round 16 clash the Saints had won the previous 4 encounters with an average winning margin of 44 points.
Collingwood are starting the game short priced favourites at 1.38 head to head a short price in a grand final where anything is possible, while line betting could see some value. St Kilda is 1.90 with a 17.5 point start, a price that looks too good to refuse. There is no doubt that Saints coach Ross Lyon will attempt to smother Collingwood’s free flowing game, and expect a low scoring dour encounter. The last 4 times the two teams have met the average match score total has been 140.5, while last year’s Grand Final was a low scoring 148 point encounter. For that reason a second wager on total match points margin being UNDER the 167.5 looks a good option.
Suggested Bets:
- St Kilda +17.5 @1.90
- Total match Points UNDER 167.5 @ 1.90
On the Punt with Butsy - Manikato Stakes - Moonee Valley Friday Night
THE RACE: MANIKATO STAKES: The Manikato Stakes is the first Group I weight-for-age race of the season for the speedsters. NSW gallopers have dominated the race in recent years winning six of the last eight runnings and this year the Premier State again has a major hand with All Silent, Hay List, Love Conquers All and Latin News representing. Only two four-year-olds have won the race since 2000 and this year four of the nine runners fit that bill, Reward For Effort, Love Conquers All, Latin News and True Persuasion. Race favourite Hay List will be aiming to emulate Miss Andretti in 2006 when she claimed the McEwen/Manikato double. The master Bart Cummings is the leading Manikato Stakes trainer having won the race on four previous occasions and Latin News will be his sole representative in the quest for number 5. Cummings is the only trainer represented this year to have previously won the race.
STAR BET: MILITARY ROSE (Moonee Valley - Race 8 No. 1): Forget the first-up run. She has failed twice in her career and both were on rain-affected tracks. Back in the autumn she towelled up Solar Charged in the Reisling Slipper Stakes and that’s the formline we are banking on. Under the set weight conditions of the Champagne, Military Rose is the best weighted horse in the race at around $3.50 she’s the right odds to be declared a star bet.
BEST VALUE: ALL SILENT (Moonee Valley - Race 6 No. 7): He possesses a big finish and will be suited by the uphill run home off a genuine speed. We are quick to forget how good a horse is and with all the hype around Hay List I think this bloke has got under the guard of punters.
MASTER BET - PRECEDENCE (Moonee Valley - Race 5 No.3): This horse has a real sense of Cups so a penalty for winning this could be just what the master Bart Cummings wants to ensure a Caulfield Cup start as he is currently equal 42nd in the Caulfield Cup order of entry. His two runs this time in have been first rate finishing two lengths off them first-up over 1400 metres before running fourth behind Whobegotyou in the Makybe Diva at Flemington. If he’s a serious Caulfield Cup hope like we think he is, he’ll be winning this.
CHANGE OF LUCK TIP: RUN FOR LEVI (Moonee Valley Race 7 – No.3): This bloke had all sorts of trouble in his first try at racing at Moonee Valley. He had to do the donkeywork to cart the field up to a runaway leader before getting in a tangle and losing all momentum on the home turn before running home well for third to Epic Dragon on September 11. He’ll take great benefit from his first run on the course and will be hard to beat with Nash Rawiller in the saddle.
RIGHT RACE TIP: JOLIE BRISE (Moonee Valley Race 2 – No.3): The Pat Hyland-trained mare has done reasonably well in two runs back from a spell and drops a long way in class for Friday night’s assignment. Jolie Brise was caught midfield in the strangely run Stocks Stakes and briefly looked a place hope before boxing on to finish midfield. Valdemoro finished lengths behind Jolie Brise in the race before making a huge form turnaround to go down narrowly in the Naturalism Stakes. Jolie Brise drops 2.5kg from the weight-for-age format back to a handicap. She’s very well suited here.
WHISPER FROM THE MATES TIP - EPIC DRAGON (Moonee Valley Race 7 - No.2): Ran into a very reliable mate in town who has been following this one. Worth a punt at the price.
FORMLINE TIP – MAGIC WEEKEND (Canterbury - Race 8 No. 2): He resumed from a spell with a cracking effort when second behind Thankgodyou’rehere, beating home the highly touted Griffon and Danza Doll. He turns up here and will carry 54kg after the claim for in-form apprentice Josh Adams. An on-pacer that makes his own luck and has good stats at the track and over the distance.
DOWN IN CLASS TIP – SINGLE PLAY (Canterbury - Race 7 No. 4): The money was there to say she’d run well last time out but the class of the race was a bridge too far. This is a massive class drop and she comes right into calculations. Will carry 56kg after Blake Spriggs claim and she is unbeaten in two starts at Canterbury. While she is yet to win past 1100 metres, we believe she is looking for the extra trip now and the 1250 metres should suit perfectly.
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