For those of you that know me well, it would be no surprise to hear me trapping off about a bet that is a "certainty" or my favourite line "Money for old Rope". Well I'm finally going to put up or shut up this week and put it out there for all to see.
I think this weeks AFL markets offer some tremendous value. Geelong at $1.75 represents a price that you will only ever see when Geelong plays either Collingwood or St Kilda. Considering that they have towelled up the Pies in their last 2 outings I see this as too good to pass up. Yes Collingwood are playing well blah blah blah, but the Cats are simply too good. Get all over that price. I should point out however that I never bet on Friday Night Football (Butsy's All Form Rule #13). Friday night footy always pulls out the most unexpected result. Never include this game in your Multi's. Its a long weekend if you get knocked out in the first leg.
Sydney V Fremantle gives us another game where punters can clean up. Sydney have not lost to Fremantle in Sydney since 1996 (Butsy's All Form Rule #3 - Dont buck the trend). Freo's young list will be a bit down after this weeks constant media scrutiny surrounding Michael Johnson and the Swans will be fired up after a disappointing loss to the Doggies in Canberra. You would also think that the Swannies will be a bit emotional following the shock retirement of "Capt" Kirk. Fremantle have had two six-day breaks and have gone from Perth, to Brisbane, back to Perth and now to Sydney so it has been a tough block for them. At $1.75, I will be all over the Swans like a cheap suit. In fact the $5.75 on offer for 39+ is certainly not out of the question.
Another team that has been in a bit of strife are Adelaide. After promising the world this year the Crows have delivered an Atlas. They look old and slow and the Neil Craig gameplan looks beyond them. Having said that, they are showing small glimpses of a recovery. Some of their young rookies have come into the side and peformed well. With Brisbane playing so poorly and their two gun forwards playing injured I think the Crows are a massive chance at $2.15. I certainly wouldnt be taking the $1.65 on offer for Brisbane (Butsy's All Form Rule #2 - Dont take short odds for bad teams).
The rank outsider this week that has some chance is......wait for it.......the Tigers. Yes the Tigers. I can hear you all saying "Butsy, you are a Muppet", and justifiably so. Richmond played well last week and although they will be without Jackson, the Cus comes back into the side and with the big occasion of "Dreamtime", they could nearly pull off a miracle. I dont like Essendon as a side nor do I rate Matty Knights as a coach and even though it may seem that Im going against one of my rules (Butsy's All Form Rule #12 - Dont take hatred into account) I truly believe the Bombers are inconsistent enough to lose this one. However it is a long shot and the odds of $3.50 dont really give us much value.
In the remaining games, I think the Doggies ($1.22) should easily account for North , Port will smash the young Demons in Darwin (Port Adelaide Under 39.5 Pts $2.30), the Saints ($1.90) will bounce back against the Eagles and unfortunately the Blues will account for the Hawks although the Hawks are great value at $3.00. On the exotic side I would have Bradshaw for the most goals for the round at $9 (Centrebet).
http://www.thetote.com.au/
So my tips for this week will be:
Cats
Doggies
Swans
Port
Tigers
Crows
Blues
Saints
So there it is. A great weekend of footy coming up and hopefully a bit of cash to be made. Lets see how I go.
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